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SOUTH FLORIDA

SOUTH FLORIDAUSF

4-0  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 5:00 PM ET
Doyt L. Perry Stadium
View Odds Details →

BOWLING GREEN

BOWLING GREENBGSU

0-4  |  Home

6
Key Game
Luke Goater
KEY GAME

Luke Goater

#39 | Punter
@
Ryan Kingston
KEY GAME

Ryan Kingston

#30 | Punter
Player
Luke Goater None-None
Ryan Kingston None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SOUTH FLORIDA
79%
📊
BOWLING GREEN
21%
▲ Edge: +8% (BGSU)
SOUTH FLORIDA 91% Book Odds: -1050
BOWLING GREEN 13% Book Odds: +675
Book Implied: 91.30% / 12.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
40.4
Projected
Book Total
48.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +8.1 (Under)
Over 48.5 33%
Under 48.5 67%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+14.0
BOWLING GREEN
Book Spread
+17.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Bowling Green)
South FloridaUSF (-17.5) 0 Bowling GreenBGSU (+17.5)
Bowling Green Falcons (+17.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

South Florida Cover

15.9%

Bowling Green Cover

84.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BGSU +14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BGSU)

USF By 1-6 points

12.9%

USF By 7-13 points

19.0%

BGSU By 1-6 points

7.9%

BGSU By 7-13 points

4.7%

AI Model Projected Score
27.2
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Implied: 33
13.2
BOWLING GREEN
Book Implied: 15.50
Simulated Score
29
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Implied: 33
23
BOWLING GREEN
Book Implied: 15.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI South Florida Win
79% Win Prob
A
Sim South Florida Win
72% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Bowling Green (+17.5) Win
Proj Spread: +14.0
B
Sim Bowling Green (+17.5) Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI u48.5 Win
Proj Total: 40.4
A
Sim o48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 USF @ BGSU 14 - 6
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +46.0% more
South Florida: 24.8 vs Bowling Green: 13.4
Total Yards (L5) +45.5% more
South Florida: 456.0 vs Bowling Green: 248.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +38.7% more
South Florida: 194.1 vs Bowling Green: 119.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +27.0% more
South Florida: 0.5 vs Bowling Green: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USF Score 27.2 14
BGSU Score 13.2 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 13.4 / 24.8 14.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 119.0 / 194.1 85.0 / 162.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.33 / 0.3
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 248.7 / 456.0 207.0 / 214.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.0 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -901 / +600 → -1050 / +675 ↓
98%TICKETS2%
100%MONEY0%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -15.5 / +15.5 → -17.5 / +17.5 ↓
50%TICKETS50%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 48.5 ↓
82%TICKETS18%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USF Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -2.3
BGSU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -21.6 ATS +/-: -5.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USF
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -2.3
BGSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -21.6 ATS +/-: -5.8
⚖️ Over/Under
USF
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -10.3
BGSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BGSU
USF
BGSU
USF
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
TTL
100% 5-0
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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