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FLORIDA ATLANTIC

FAUFAU

3-1  |  Road

45
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 8:00 PM ET
Malone Stadium
View Odds Details →

UL MONROE

UL MONROEULM

0-4  |  Home

17
Key Game
Reed Chandley
KEY GAME

Reed Chandley

#91 | Punter
@
Makenzie Ryan
KEY GAME

Makenzie Ryan

#47 | Punter
Player
Reed Chandley None-None
Makenzie Ryan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FAU
55%
📊
UL MONROE
45%
▲ Edge: +24.40% (ULM)
FAU 83% Book Odds: -484
UL MONROE 21% Book Odds: +379
Book Implied: 82.90% / 20.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
63.0
Projected
Book Total
58.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 (Over)
Over 58.0 61%
Under 58.0 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
UL MONROE
Book Spread
+12.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.5 points (UL Monroe)
FAUFAU (-12.5) 0 UL MonroeULM (+12.5)
UL Monroe Warhawks (+12.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

FAU Cover

44.3%

UL Monroe Cover

55.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ULM +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ULM)

FAU By 1-6 points

16.9%

FAU By 7-13 points

16.8%

ULM By 1-6 points

15.7%

ULM By 7-13 points

13.8%

AI Model Projected Score
32.5
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Book Implied: 35.20
30.5
UL MONROE
Book Implied: 22.80
Simulated Score
28
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Book Implied: 35.20
30
UL MONROE
Book Implied: 22.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI FAU Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim UL Monroe Loss
57% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI UL Monroe (+12.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +2.0
A
Sim UL Monroe (+12.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o58.0 Win
Proj Total: 63.0
B
Sim o58.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 FAU @ ULM 45 - 17
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +8.0% more
Florida Atlantic: 23.1 vs UL Monroe: 21.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +127.8% more
UL Monroe: 170.6 vs Florida Atlantic: 74.9
Turnovers (L5) +19.4% more
UL Monroe: 1.7 vs Florida Atlantic: 1.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FAU Score 32.5 45
ULM Score 30.5 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.2 / 23.1 13.0 / 28.0
Rushing Yards 170.6 / 74.9 54.0 / 245.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.31 / 0.55
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 373.3 / 375.9 332.0 / 577.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.4 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -586 / +409 → -484 / +379 ↑
98%TICKETS2%
98%MONEY2%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -13.5 / +13.5 → -12.5 / +12.5 ↑
29%TICKETS71%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: 57 → 58 ↑
38%TICKETS62%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FAU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +4.0
ULM
3-9-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -15.3 ATS +/-: -8.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FAU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +4.0
ULM
4-8-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -15.3 ATS +/-: -8.0
⚖️ Over/Under
FAU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +3.3
ULM
6-6-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ULM
FAU
ULM
FAU
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
ATS
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
TTL
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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