Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Louisiana @ Charlotte UL @ CLT

LOUISIANA

LOUISIANAUL

3-1  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 6:30 PM ET
Jerry Richardson Stadium
View Odds Details →

CHARLOTTE

CHARLOTTECLT

0-4  |  Home

7
Key Game
Mason Golding
KEY GAME

Mason Golding

#49 | Punter
@
Ian Kelly
KEY GAME

Ian Kelly

#44 | Punter
Player
Mason Golding None-None
Ian Kelly None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LOUISIANA
76%
📊
CHARLOTTE
24%
LOUISIANA 79% Book Odds: -375
CHARLOTTE 25% Book Odds: +295
Book Implied: 78.90% / 25.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.5
Projected
Book Total
49.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 (Over)
Over 49.5 59%
Under 49.5 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.5
LOUISIANA
Book Spread
-9.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Louisiana)
LouisianaUL (-9.5) 0 CharlotteCLT (+9.5)
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (-9.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Louisiana Cover

81.4%

Charlotte Cover

18.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UL -12.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UL)

UL By 1-6 points

13.8%

UL By 7-13 points

19.4%

CLT By 1-6 points

8.9%

CLT By 7-13 points

5.6%

AI Model Projected Score
33
LOUISIANA
Book Implied: 29.50
20.5
CHARLOTTE
Book Implied: 20
Simulated Score
32
LOUISIANA
Book Implied: 29.50
22
CHARLOTTE
Book Implied: 20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Louisiana Win
76% Win Prob
A
Sim Louisiana Win
84% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Louisiana (-9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.5
C
Sim Louisiana (-9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 53.5
B
Sim o49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 54.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 UL @ CLT 34 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +54.0% more
Louisiana: 192.3 vs Charlotte: 88.6
First Downs (L5) +26.0% more
Louisiana: 20.2 vs Charlotte: 15.0
Total Yards (L5) +18.7% more
Louisiana: 364.9 vs Charlotte: 296.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
Louisiana: 0.4 vs Charlotte: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UL Score 33.0 34
CLT Score 20.5 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.0 / 20.2 6.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 88.6 / 192.3 26.0 / 133.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.2 / 0.4 0.09 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.32 / 0.68
Total Yards 296.5 / 364.9 137.0 / 292.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.6 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -649 / +470 → -375 / +295 ↑
98%TICKETS2%
93%MONEY7%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -14.5 / +14.5 → -9.5 / +9.5 ↑
52%TICKETS48%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 49.5 ↓
73%TICKETS27%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UL Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +7.6
CLT
0-5-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -23.4 ATS +/-: -9.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UL Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +7.6
CLT
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -23.4 ATS +/-: -9.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UL
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -3.7
CLT
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +5.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLT
UL
CLT
UL
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
80% 4-1
75% 3-1-1
80% 4-1
50% 2-2-1
TTL
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Buckeyes' Banged-Up Roster Opens Door for Breakout Stars Against…
si 0 minutes ago
Hurricane Isaias Puts Bengals-Dolphins Clash on Weather Watch
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Five Burning College Football Questions Set to Be Answered This …
foxnews 5 hours, 48 minutes ago
Stephen A. Smith Highlights Kirby Smart's 2-7 Record Against Ala…
newsweek 5 hours, 48 minutes ago
Arch Manning's Heisman Bid Falters as Voters Overlook Texas QB
thecomeback 11 hours, 59 minutes ago