Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Nebraska @ Michigan St NEB @ MSU

NEBRASKA

NEBRASKANEB

4-0  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 5:00 PM ET
Spartan Stadium
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN STATE

MICHIGAN STMSU

2-2  |  Home

13
Key Game
Kyle Cunanan
KEY GAME

Kyle Cunanan

#91 | Place kicker
@
Rhys Dakin
KEY GAME

Rhys Dakin

#9 | Punter
Player
Kyle Cunanan None-None
Rhys Dakin None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NEBRASKA
60%
📊
MICHIGAN ST
40%
▲ Edge: +4.90% (MSU)
NEBRASKA 69% Book Odds: -225
MICHIGAN ST 35% Book Odds: +185
Book Implied: 69.20% / 35.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.0
Projected
Book Total
48.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +7.5 (Over)
Over 48.5 64%
Under 48.5 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.4
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Spread
+6
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Michigan State)
NebraskaNEB (-6) 0 Michigan StMSU (+6)
Michigan State Spartans (+6) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nebraska Cover

37.7%

Michigan St Cover

62.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MSU +4.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSU)

NEB By 1-6 points

16.9%

NEB By 7-13 points

18.3%

MSU By 1-6 points

14.5%

MSU By 7-13 points

11.8%

AI Model Projected Score
30.2
NEBRASKA
Book Implied: 27.20
25.8
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Implied: 21.20
Simulated Score
28
NEBRASKA
Book Implied: 27.20
31
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Implied: 21.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Nebraska Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Michigan St Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Michigan St (+6) Loss
Proj Spread: +4.4
D
Sim Michigan St (+6) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 56.0
B
Sim o48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 59.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 NEB @ MSU 31 - 13
Oct 4, 2025 MSU @ NEB 27 - 38
Nov 4, 2023 NEB @ MSU 17 - 20
Sep 25, 2021 NEB @ MSU 20 - 23
Nov 17, 2018 MSU @ NEB 6 - 9
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +46.1% more
Nebraska: 241.8 vs Michigan State: 130.4
Total Yards (L5) +29.5% more
Nebraska: 465.9 vs Michigan State: 328.3
First Downs (L5) +19.7% more
Nebraska: 23.2 vs Michigan State: 18.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Nebraska: 0.5 vs Michigan State: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NEB Score 30.2 31
MSU Score 25.8 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.7 / 23.2 22.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 130.4 / 241.8 39.0 / 157.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.38 / 0.46
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 328.3 / 465.9 257.0 / 369.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 0.5 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -192 / +160 → -225 / +185 ↓
93%TICKETS7%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -4.5 / +4.5 → -6 / +6 ↓
46%TICKETS54%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 48.5 ↓
69%TICKETS31%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NEB Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +4.9
MSU
2-6-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NEB Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +4.9
MSU
4-3-1 (57.1%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
NEB
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -2.4
MSU
2-6-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSU
NEB
MSU
NEB
ML
100% 8-0
88% 7-1
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
ATS
57% 4-3-1
25% 2-6
43% 3-4-1
38% 3-5
TTL
50% 4-4
38% 3-5
25% 2-6
38% 3-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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