Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Notre Dame @ Purdue ND @ PUR

NOTRE DAME

NOTRE DAMEND

4-0  |  Road

49
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 2:00 PM ET
Ross-Ade Stadium
View Odds Details →

PURDUE

PURDUEPUR

1-3  |  Home

10
Key Game
Jasper Scaife
KEY GAME

Jasper Scaife

#39 | Punter
@
Dylan Drennan
KEY GAME

Dylan Drennan

#42 | Punter
Player
Jasper Scaife None-None
Dylan Drennan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NOTRE DAME
59%
📊
PURDUE
41%
▲ Edge: +35.70% (PUR)
NOTRE DAME 98% Book Odds: -4545
PURDUE 6% Book Odds: +1700
Book Implied: 97.80% / 5.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
56.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.5 (Under)
Over 56.5 44%
Under 56.5 56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.4
PURDUE
Book Spread
+27.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.1 points (Purdue)
Notre DameND (-27.5) 0 PurduePUR (+27.5)
Purdue Boilermakers (+27.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Notre Dame Cover

40.4%

Purdue Cover

59.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around PUR +3.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PUR)

ND By 1-6 points

17.0%

ND By 7-13 points

17.7%

PUR By 1-6 points

15.1%

PUR By 7-13 points

12.6%

AI Model Projected Score
29.2
NOTRE DAME
Book Implied: 42
25.8
PURDUE
Book Implied: 14.50
Simulated Score
30
NOTRE DAME
Book Implied: 42
24
PURDUE
Book Implied: 14.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Notre Dame Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Notre Dame Win
72% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Purdue (+27.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +3.4
A
Sim Purdue (+27.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +6.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u56.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Sim u56.5 Loss
Proj Total: 54.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 ND @ PUR 49 - 10
Sep 20, 2025 PUR @ ND 30 - 56
Sep 14, 2024 ND @ PUR 66 - 7
Sep 18, 2021 PUR @ ND 13 - 27
Sep 13, 2014 PUR @ ND 14 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +36.4% more
Notre Dame: 163.0 vs Purdue: 103.7
Turnovers (L5) +131.0% more
Purdue: 1.5 vs Notre Dame: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ND Score 29.2 49
PUR Score 25.8 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.9 / 21.3 16.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 103.7 / 163.0 40.0 / 177.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.44 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.59 / 0.41
Total Yards 424.3 / 426.1 218.0 / 444.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 0.2 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -6667 / +2000 → -4545 / +1700 ↑
98%TICKETS2%
96%MONEY4%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -27.5 / +27.5 → -27.5 / +27.5
49%TICKETS51%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: 56.5 → 56.5
42%TICKETS58%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ND Advantage
7-1-0 (87.5%)
Margin: 27.0 ATS +/-: -1.3
PUR
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.6 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ND Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 27.0 ATS +/-: -1.3
PUR
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.6 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
ND
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +2.3
PUR
6-2-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PUR
ND
PUR
ND
ML
75% 6-2
100% 8-0
88% 7-1
88% 7-1
ATS
43% 3-4-1
50% 4-4
57% 4-3-1
50% 4-4
TTL
75% 6-2
50% 4-4
62% 5-3
50% 4-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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