Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Oklahoma @ Georgia OU @ UGA

OKLAHOMA

OKLAHOMAOU

2-2  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 3:30 PM ET
Sanford Stadium
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA

GEORGIAUGA

4-0  |  Home

41
Key Game
Tate Sandell
KEY GAME

Tate Sandell

#29 | Place kicker
@
Drew Miller
KEY GAME

Drew Miller

#90 | Punter
Player
Tate Sandell None-None
Drew Miller None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OKLAHOMA
21%
📊
GEORGIA
79%
▲ Edge: +0.90% (OU)
OKLAHOMA 20% Book Odds: +400
GEORGIA 84% Book Odds: -535
Book Implied: 20% / 84.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.4
Projected
Book Total
43.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +12.9 (Over)
Over 43.5 77%
Under 43.5 23%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
GEORGIA
Book Spread
-12.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Georgia)
OklahomaOU (+12.5) 0 GeorgiaUGA (-12.5)
Georgia Bulldogs (-12.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Oklahoma Cover

15.9%

Georgia Cover

84.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UGA -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UGA)

OU By 1-6 points

7.9%

OU By 7-13 points

4.7%

UGA By 1-6 points

12.9%

UGA By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
21.2
OKLAHOMA
Book Implied: 15.50
35.2
GEORGIA
Book Implied: 28
Simulated Score
22
OKLAHOMA
Book Implied: 15.50
34
GEORGIA
Book Implied: 28
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Georgia Win
79% Win Prob
A
Sim Georgia Win
88% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Georgia (-12.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Oklahoma (+12.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +12.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o43.5 Win
Proj Total: 56.4
A
Sim o43.5 Win
Proj Total: 56.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 OU @ UGA 13 - 41
Jan 1, 2018 UGA @ OU 54 - 48
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +147.5% more
Georgia: 232.1 vs Oklahoma: 93.8
Total Yards (L5) +47.9% more
Georgia: 478.5 vs Oklahoma: 323.4
First Downs (L5) +44.9% more
Georgia: 23.0 vs Oklahoma: 15.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +19.0% more
Georgia: 0.6 vs Oklahoma: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OU Score 21.2 13
UGA Score 35.2 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.0 / 15.9 12.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 232.1 / 93.8 129.0 / 65.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.4 0.25 / 0.14
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 478.5 / 323.4 306.0 / 296.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 2.0 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +410 / -549 → +400 / -535
2%TICKETS98%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +14 / -14 → +12.5 / -12.5 ↓
28%TICKETS72%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5 → 43.5 ↓
86%TICKETS14%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -4.3
UGA Advantage
6-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 32.2 ATS +/-: +7.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -4.3
UGA Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 32.2 ATS +/-: +7.3
⚖️ Over/Under
OU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.7
UGA
5-1-0
O: 83.3% / U: 16.7% Total +/-: +8.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UGA
OU
UGA
OU
ML
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
67% 4-2
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
17% 1-5
60% 3-2
TTL
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
50% 3-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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