Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Illinois @ Ohio State ILL @ OSU

ILLINOIS

ILLINOISILL

2-2  |  Road

19
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 12:00 PM ET
Ohio Stadium
View Odds Details →

OHIO STATE

OHIO STATEOSU

3-1  |  Home

42
Key Game
Lars Rau
KEY GAME

Lars Rau

#81 | Punter
@
Joe McGuire
KEY GAME

Joe McGuire

#42 | Punter
Player
Lars Rau None-None
Joe McGuire None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ILLINOIS
17%
📊
OHIO STATE
83%
▲ Edge: +10.60% (ILL)
ILLINOIS 6% Book Odds: +1600
OHIO STATE 98% Book Odds: -4000
Book Implied: 5.90% / 97.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.6
Projected
Book Total
53.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 (Over)
Over 53.5 51%
Under 53.5 49%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+17.0
ILLINOIS
Book Spread
+25.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.5 points (Illinois)
IllinoisILL (+25.5) 0 Ohio StateOSU (-25.5)
Illinois Fighting Illini (+25.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Illinois Cover

88.8%

Ohio State Cover

11.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ILL +17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILL)

ILL By 1-6 points

5.9%

ILL By 7-13 points

3.2%

OSU By 1-6 points

10.7%

OSU By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
18.8
ILLINOIS
Book Implied: 14
35.8
OHIO STATE
Book Implied: 39.50
Simulated Score
20
ILLINOIS
Book Implied: 14
36
OHIO STATE
Book Implied: 39.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Ohio State Win
83% Win Prob
A
Sim Ohio State Win
94% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Illinois (+25.5) Win
Proj Spread: +17.0
A
Sim Illinois (+25.5) Win
Proj Spread: +16.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o53.5 Win
Proj Total: 54.6
D
Sim o53.5 Win
Proj Total: 56.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 ILL @ OSU 19 - 42
Oct 11, 2025 OSU @ ILL 34 - 16
Nov 18, 2017 ILL @ OSU 14 - 52
Nov 14, 2015 OSU @ ILL 28 - 3
Nov 1, 2014 ILL @ OSU 14 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +67.0% more
Ohio State: 1.4 vs Illinois: 0.7
Total Yards (L5) +21.4% more
Ohio State: 487.0 vs Illinois: 401.0
First Downs (L5) +19.7% more
Ohio State: 24.2 vs Illinois: 20.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ILL Score 18.8 19
OSU Score 35.8 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.2 / 20.2 27.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 152.4 / 151.6 151.0 / 199.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.67 / 0.43
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 487.0 / 401.0 518.0 / 462.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +2000 / -6667 → +1600 / -4000 ↓
3%TICKETS97%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +27.5 / -27.5 → +25.5 / -25.5 ↓
40%TICKETS60%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53.5 → 53.5
71%TICKETS29%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ILL
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: -4.9
OSU Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 29.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ILL
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: -4.9
OSU Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 29.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ILL
5-1-0
O: 83.3% / U: 16.7% Total +/-: +5.5
OSU
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OSU
ILL
OSU
ILL
ML
83% 5-1
67% 4-2
100% 6-0
67% 4-2
ATS
50% 3-3
33% 2-4
33% 2-4
83% 5-1
TTL
83% 5-1
83% 5-1
33% 2-4
67% 4-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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