Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Navy @ UAB NAVY @ UAB

NAVY

NAVYNAVY

1-2  |  Road

20
FINAL
Fri, Sep 25 • 7:00 PM ET
Protective Stadium
View Odds Details →

UAB

UABUAB

2-2  |  Home

24
Key Game
Jacob Carlson
KEY GAME

Jacob Carlson

#11 | Punter
@
Oliver Straw
KEY GAME

Oliver Straw

#46 | Punter
Player
Jacob Carlson None-None
Oliver Straw None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NAVY
79%
📊
UAB
21%
▲ Edge: +7.70% (NAVY)
NAVY 71% Book Odds: -250
UAB 33% Book Odds: +205
Book Implied: 71.40% / 32.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.0
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 (Over)
Over 50.5 58%
Under 50.5 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
NAVY
Book Spread
-6.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.5 points (Navy)
NavyNAVY (-6.5) 0 UABUAB (+6.5)
Navy Midshipmen (-6.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Navy Cover

84.1%

UAB Cover

15.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NAVY -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NAVY)

NAVY By 1-6 points

12.9%

NAVY By 7-13 points

19.0%

UAB By 1-6 points

7.9%

UAB By 7-13 points

4.7%

AI Model Projected Score
34
NAVY
Book Implied: 28.50
20
UAB
Book Implied: 22
Simulated Score
27
NAVY
Book Implied: 28.50
31
UAB
Book Implied: 22
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Navy Loss
79% Win Prob
A
Sim UAB Win
65% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Navy (-6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
A
Sim UAB (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 54.0
B
Sim o50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 25, 2026 NAVY @ UAB 20 - 24
Sep 6, 2025 UAB @ NAVY 24 - 38
Sep 28, 2024 NAVY @ UAB 41 - 18
Nov 11, 2023 UAB @ NAVY 6 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +48.6% more
Navy: 317.6 vs UAB: 163.2
Total Yards (L5) +18.6% more
Navy: 412.6 vs UAB: 336.0
First Downs (L5) +13.0% more
Navy: 21.8 vs UAB: 18.9
Turnovers (L5) +24.8% more
UAB: 1.5 vs Navy: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NAVY Score 34.0 20
UAB Score 20.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.9 / 21.8 15.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 163.2 / 317.6 116.0 / 249.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 336.0 / 412.6 290.0 / 353.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.2 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -500 / +380 → -250 / +205 ↑
93%TICKETS7%
96%MONEY4%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -11.5 / +11.5 → -6.5 / +6.5 ↑
61%TICKETS39%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53.5 → 50.5 ↓
56%TICKETS44%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NAVY
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: -5.2
UAB Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NAVY
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: -5.2
UAB Advantage
3-3-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
NAVY
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -0.3
UAB
1-6-0
O: 14.3% / U: 85.7% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UAB
NAVY
UAB
NAVY
ML
71% 5-2
40% 2-3
100% 7-0
100% 5-0
ATS
50% 3-3-1
60% 3-2
83% 5-1-1
100% 5-0
TTL
43% 3-4
20% 1-4
57% 4-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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