Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Rockies SD @ COL

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

82-68  |  Road

8
FINAL
Mon, Sep 14 • 8:40 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

55-95  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Casey Mize
STARTING PITCHER

Casey Mize

#32 | Starting Pitcher
@
Tomoyuki Sugano
STARTING PITCHER

Tomoyuki Sugano

#11 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Casey Mize 5-9 3.70 1.11 119.1 107
Tomoyuki Sugano 12-9 5.30 1.34 137.2 84
5-9 W-L 12-9
3.70 Ldr ERA 5.30
1.11 Ldr WHIP 1.34
119.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 137.2
107 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 84
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
56%
📊
ROCKIES
44%
▲ Edge: +7.10% (COL)
PADRES 67% Book Odds: -207
ROCKIES 37% Book Odds: +169
Book Implied: 67.40% / 37.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.5
Projected
Book Total
11.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 11.0 55%
Under 11.0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
COLORADO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
PadresSD (-1.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

35.4%

Rockies Cover

64.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around COL +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

SD By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SD By 3-4 runs

17.5%

COL By 1-2 runs

15.0%

COL By 3-4 runs

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
6.5
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 6.20
5
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
6
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 6.20
4
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Padres Win
56% Win Prob
C
Sim Padres Win
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockies (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim Padres (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o11.0 Win
Proj Total: 11.5
D
Sim u11.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 17, 2026 SD @ COL 9 - 2
Sep 16, 2026 SD @ COL 9 - 3
Sep 15, 2026 SD @ COL 3 - 9
Sep 14, 2026 SD @ COL 8 - 7
Jul 29, 2026 COL @ SD 1 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Colorado COL
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.64
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.254
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.322
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.417
.925 ▲
OPS
.739
4
Home Runs
▲ 180
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +58.0% more
San Diego: 0.7 vs Colorado: 0.2
Total Bases (L5) +24.5% more
San Diego: 17.4 vs Colorado: 13.1
Hits (L5) +24.2% more
San Diego: 10.6 vs Colorado: 8.0
Runs per Game (Season) +22.7% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Colorado: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 6.5 8
COL Score 5.0 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.0 / 10.6 14.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.2 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.5 / 8.9 8.0 / 2.0
Total Bases 13.1 / 17.4 26.0 / 21.0
Walks 4.1 / 2.4 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -132 / +110 → -207 / +169 ↓
91%TICKETS9%
93%MONEY7%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
83%TICKETS17%
94%MONEY6%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7 → 11 ↑
77%TICKETS23%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
SD
COL
SD
ML
60% 97-64
51% 85-83
55% 88-73
51% 85-82
ATS
60% 97-64
54% 91-77
52% 83-78
55% 92-75
TTL
60% 93-62-6
51% 82-80-6
50% 77-78-6
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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