Home / MLB Projections MLB / Orioles @ Mets BAL @ NYM

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

73-78  |  Road

2
FINAL
Mon, Sep 14 • 7:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

69-81  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Brandon Young
STARTING PITCHER

Brandon Young

#63 | Starting Pitcher
@
Jonah Tong
STARTING PITCHER

Jonah Tong

#21 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brandon Young 9-4 3.71 1.35 140.2 112
Jonah Tong 2-1 4.80 1.33 15.0 14
9-4 W-L 2-1
3.71 Ldr ERA 4.80
1.35 WHIP Ldr 1.33
140.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 15.0
112 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 14
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
44%
📊
METS
56%
ORIOLES 46% Book Odds: +118
METS 59% Book Odds: -143
Book Implied: 45.90% / 58.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5 56%
Under 8.5 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Baltimore)
OriolesBAL (+1.5) 0 MetsNYM (-1.5)
Baltimore Orioles (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Orioles Cover

63.7%

Mets Cover

36.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

BAL By 1-2 runs

15.3%

BAL By 3-4 runs

9.5%

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.7%

NYM By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3.50
5.2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
4
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3.50
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mets Loss
56% Win Prob
C
Sim Mets Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Orioles (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim Orioles (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 16, 2026 BAL @ NYM 7 - 1
Sep 15, 2026 BAL @ NYM 7 - 5
Sep 14, 2026 BAL @ NYM 2 - 1
Jul 10, 2025 NYM @ BAL 3 - 7
Jul 8, 2025 NYM @ BAL 7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore BAL
vs
New York NYM
161
Games Played
▲ 162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.314 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.396 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.711 ▲
OPS
.705
199
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +123.0% more
New York: 2.0 vs Baltimore: 0.8
Total Bases (L5) +32.3% more
New York: 16.0 vs Baltimore: 12.1
Home Runs (Season) +2.5% more
New York: 204.0 vs Baltimore: 199.0
Batting Avg (Season) +0.5%
New York: 23.9% vs Baltimore: 23.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 3.8 2
NYM Score 5.2 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.4 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.5 / 8.3 6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 2.0 / 0.8 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.5 / 11.6 8.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 16.0 / 12.1 9.0 / 14.0
Walks 2.5 / 4.2 5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +113 / -136 → +118 / -143 ↑
36%TICKETS64%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
62%TICKETS38%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
94%TICKETS6%
95%MONEY5%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL Advantage
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
BAL
NYM
BAL
ML
50% 79-80
53% 83-73
48% 76-83
57% 90-69
ATS
58% 93-66
61% 95-60-1
49% 78-81
57% 90-68-1
TTL
55% 80-66-13
54% 81-70-5
51% 74-72-13
51% 78-75-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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