DETROIT
TIGERSDET
71-79 | Road
6
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
75-76 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Troy Melton
#52 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jose Soriano
#40 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Melton | 8-4 | 2.42 | 1.05 | 108.0 | 87 |
| Jose Soriano | 12-7 | 3.48 | 1.28 | 163.0 | 154 |
8-4
W-L
12-7
2.42 Ldr
ERA
3.48
1.05 Ldr
WHIP
1.28
108.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 163.0
87
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 154
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
49%
BLUE JAYS
51%
▲ Edge: +3.60% (DET)
TIGERS
46%
Book Odds: +119
BLUE JAYS
59%
Book Odds: -144
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5
65%
Under 7.5
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
DETROIT
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
DET By 1-2 runs
15.3%
DET By 3-4 runs
9.5%
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TOR By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
3.8
DETROIT
Book Implied: 3
Toronto
5.2
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
Detroit
6
DETROIT
Book Implied: 3
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays
Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Win
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim
Tigers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 16, 2026
DET @ TOR
1 - 5
Sep 15, 2026
DET @ TOR
10 - 1
Sep 14, 2026
DET @ TOR
6 - 5
May 17, 2026
TOR @ DET
4 - 1
May 16, 2026
TOR @ DET
2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Toronto
TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.320
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.720
▲
OPS
.692
181
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+38.0% more
Toronto: 2.1
vs
Detroit: 1.5
Errors (L5)
+20.0% more
Toronto: 0.8
vs
Detroit: 0.6
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.6%
Toronto: 24.7%
vs
Detroit: 24.1%
Home Runs (Season)
+16.0% more
Detroit: 181.0
vs
Toronto: 152.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
3.8
6
TOR Score
5.2
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.6
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.9 / 9.5
8.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
2.1 / 1.5
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 8.7
7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
18.1 / 17.7
12.0 / 11.0
Walks
4.0 / 4.0
2.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +129 / -156
→
+119 / -144
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TOR
Advantage
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
DET
TOR
DET
ML
46%
74-87
54%
86-73
50%
80-80
54%
87-73
ATS
56%
90-71
64%
101-58
49%
79-81
57%
91-69
TTL
51%
80-76-5
46%
69-81-9
45%
70-85-5
46%
69-81-10
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