SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
81-68 | Road
6
SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
62-88 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Nick Pivetta
#27 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Logan Webb
#62 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Pivetta | 2-2 | 3.43 | 0.95 | 21.0 | 26 |
| Logan Webb | 8-8 | 4.10 | 1.15 | 155.2 | 127 |
2-2
W-L
8-8
3.43 Ldr
ERA
4.10
0.95 Ldr
WHIP
1.15
21.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 155.2
26
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 127
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
46%
GIANTS
54%
▲ Edge: +6.90% (SF)
PADRES
55%
Book Odds: -124
GIANTS
47%
Book Odds: +114
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 7.5
57%
Under 7.5
43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (San Francisco)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)
SD By 1-2 runs
13.6%
SD By 3-4 runs
7.8%
SF By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SF By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 4.50
San Francisco
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 4.50
San Francisco
6
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Giants
Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
Giants
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Giants (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Sim
Giants (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
SD @ SF
6 - 4
Sep 12, 2026
SD @ SF
7 - 6
Sep 11, 2026
SD @ SF
7 - 5
Aug 2, 2026
SF @ SD
4 - 5
Aug 1, 2026
SF @ SD
5 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
San Francisco
SF
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.925
▲
OPS
.706
4
Home Runs
▲
178
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+4350.0% more
San Francisco: 178.0
vs
San Diego: 4.0
Errors (L5)
+109.0% more
San Francisco: 1.2
vs
San Diego: 0.1
Home Runs (L5)
+62.3% more
San Francisco: 2.0
vs
San Diego: 1.2
Walks (L5)
+34.5% more
San Francisco: 4.1
vs
San Diego: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
3.0
6
SF Score
5.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.2 / 0.1
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.8 / 11.3
9.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
2.0 / 1.2
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.2 / 8.3
9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
15.0 / 18.5
12.0 / 15.0
Walks
4.1 / 3.0
4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +174 / -216
→
-124 / +114
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
SD
SF
SD
ML
49%
79-81
51%
85-83
53%
85-75
51%
85-82
ATS
62%
100-60
54%
91-77
52%
83-77
55%
92-75
TTL
55%
82-68-10
51%
82-80-6
46%
68-81-11
54%
86-74-6
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