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TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

74-76  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sun, Sep 13 • 4:10 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

79-71  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Cal Quantrill
STARTING PITCHER

Cal Quantrill

#44 | Relief Pitcher
@
Eduardo Rodriguez
STARTING PITCHER

Eduardo Rodriguez

#57 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Cal Quantrill 8-5 2.89 1.06 102.2 77
Eduardo Rodriguez 15-5 2.55 1.20 173.0 128
8-5 W-L 15-5
2.89 ERA Ldr 2.55
1.06 Ldr WHIP 1.20
102.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 173.0
77 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 128
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
43%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
57%
▲ Edge: +1.90% (ARI)
RANGERS 47% Book Odds: +114
DIAMONDBACKS 55% Book Odds: -123
Book Implied: 46.70% / 55.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.0 55%
Under 8.0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
TEXAS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
RangersTEX (+1.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rangers Cover

64.6%

Diamondbacks Cover

35.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

TEX By 1-2 runs

15.0%

TEX By 3-4 runs

9.2%

ARI By 1-2 runs

19.7%

ARI By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
TEXAS
Book Implied: 3.20
5
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
5
TEXAS
Book Implied: 3.20
6
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks Loss
57% Win Prob
C
Sim Diamondbacks Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rangers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim Rangers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 TEX @ ARI 7 - 6
Sep 12, 2026 TEX @ ARI 6 - 2
Sep 11, 2026 TEX @ ARI 1 - 9
May 13, 2026 ARI @ TEX 5 - 6
May 12, 2026 ARI @ TEX 4 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas TEX
vs
Arizona ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.15
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.242
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .318
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.713
OPS
▲ .720
183 ▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +28.2% more
Arizona: 3.3 vs Texas: 2.6
Runs per Game (Season) +9.9% more
Arizona: 4.6 vs Texas: 4.2
OPS (Season) +0.7%
Arizona: 72.0% vs Texas: 71.3%
Slugging Pct (Season) +0.6%
Arizona: 40.2% vs Texas: 39.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEX Score 3.5 7
ARI Score 5.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.3 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.3 / 8.6 12.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.2 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.0 / 8.3 10.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 13.1 / 13.9 21.0 / 14.0
Walks 3.3 / 2.6 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -104 / -116 → +114 / -123 ↑
22%TICKETS78%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↑
17%TICKETS83%
6%MONEY94%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8 ↓
87%TICKETS13%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
TEX
ARI
TEX
ML
54% 87-74
53% 86-76
54% 86-74
57% 91-70
ATS
57% 91-70
57% 92-70
56% 89-71
61% 98-63
TTL
52% 80-73-8
53% 78-70-14
49% 73-77-9
55% 81-66-14
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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