Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mariners @ Athletics SEA @ ATH

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

70-80  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sun, Sep 13 • 4:05 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

61-89  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Bryce Miller
STARTING PITCHER

Bryce Miller

#50 | Starting Pitcher
@
Jacob Lopez
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Lopez

#57 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Bryce Miller 4-9 4.22 1.14 102.1 101
Jacob Lopez 6-4 4.78 1.45 111.0 104
4-9 W-L 6-4
4.22 Ldr ERA 4.78
1.14 Ldr WHIP 1.45
102.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 111.0
101 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 104
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
52%
📊
ATHLETICS
48%
▲ Edge: +1% (ATH)
MARINERS 57% Book Odds: -134
ATHLETICS 47% Book Odds: +111
Book Implied: 57.30% / 47.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
Over 9.0 49%
Under 9.0 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Athletics)
MarinersSEA (-1.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+1.5)
Athletics (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mariners Cover

36.3%

Athletics Cover

63.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATH +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

SEA By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SEA By 3-4 runs

17.2%

ATH By 1-2 runs

15.3%

ATH By 3-4 runs

9.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.2
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 5.20
3.8
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
4
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 5.20
5
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mariners Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Athletics Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Athletics (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim Athletics (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 SEA @ ATH 7 - 8
Sep 12, 2026 SEA @ ATH 19 - 1
Sep 11, 2026 SEA @ ATH 5 - 6
Sep 6, 2026 ATH @ SEA 0 - 2
Sep 5, 2026 ATH @ SEA 6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle SEA
vs
Athletics ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.10
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.693
OPS
▲ .719
182
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +50.2% more
Seattle: 2.2 vs Athletics: 1.1
Total Bases (L5) +49.1% more
Seattle: 22.1 vs Athletics: 11.2
Walks (L5) +44.4% more
Seattle: 4.3 vs Athletics: 2.4
Hits (L5) +42.4% more
Seattle: 12.7 vs Athletics: 7.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEA Score 5.2 7
ATH Score 3.8 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.3 / 12.7 9.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 2.2 3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.0 / 6.8 7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 11.2 / 22.1 21.0 / 20.0
Walks 2.4 / 4.3 6.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -143 / +119 → -134 / +111 ↑
79%TICKETS21%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
79%TICKETS21%
86%MONEY14%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5 → 9 ↓
91%TICKETS9%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
ATH Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
SEA
ATH
SEA
ML
59% 95-67
50% 81-81
54% 87-74
52% 85-77
ATS
52% 84-78
60% 98-64
50% 81-80
59% 95-67
TTL
54% 84-73-5
56% 85-67-10
42% 66-90-5
53% 81-71-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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