LOS ANGELES
DODGERSLAD
90-59 | Road
4
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
74-76 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Emmet Sheehan
#80 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Eury Perez
#39 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmet Sheehan | 5-8 | 5.08 | 1.26 | 101.0 | 118 |
| Eury Perez | 7-11 | 3.94 | 1.24 | 139.1 | 150 |
5-8
W-L
7-11
5.08
ERA
Ldr 3.94
1.26
WHIP
Ldr 1.24
101.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 139.1
118
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 150
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
54%
MARLINS
46%
DODGERS
58%
Book Odds: -137
MARLINS
47%
Book Odds: +114
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.5
60%
Under 8.5
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
MIAMI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
LAD By 1-2 runs
19.7%
LAD By 3-4 runs
17.5%
MIA By 1-2 runs
15.0%
MIA By 3-4 runs
9.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Los Angeles
5.5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 5
Miami
4
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Los Angeles
4
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 5
Miami
5
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Dodgers
Loss
54% Win Prob
C
Sim
Marlins
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Marlins (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
C
Sim
Marlins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.5
C
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
LAD @ MIA
4 - 6
Sep 12, 2026
LAD @ MIA
3 - 4
Sep 11, 2026
LAD @ MIA
6 - 2
Apr 29, 2026
MIA @ LAD
3 - 2
Apr 28, 2026
MIA @ LAD
2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles
LAD
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.94
▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.257
▲
Avg (AVG)
.249
.338
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.424
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.762
▲
OPS
.727
204
▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+48.3% more
Los Angeles: 1.8
vs
Miami: 0.9
Errors (L5)
+35.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.5
vs
Miami: 0.2
Walks (L5)
+21.1% more
Los Angeles: 5.0
vs
Miami: 4.0
Home Runs (Season)
+17.6% more
Los Angeles: 204.0
vs
Miami: 168.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LAD Score
5.5
4
MIA Score
4.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.0 / 7.1
9.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.8
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.6 / 8.3
7.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
15.1 / 14.1
13.0 / 15.0
Walks
4.0 / 5.0
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -155 / +128
→
-137 / +114
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -2.5 / +2.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD
Advantage
103-63-0
(62.1%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3%
Total +/-: 0.0
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
LAD
MIA
LAD
ML
48%
78-84
56%
92-73
55%
88-72
48%
79-87
ATS
56%
91-71
59%
98-67
54%
86-74
43%
72-94
TTL
56%
88-69-5
48%
77-82-6
53%
82-73-5
44%
70-90-6
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