NEW YORK
METSNYM
69-80 | Road
0
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
86-63 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Christian Scott
#45 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cam Schlittler
#31 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Scott | 4-4 | 3.81 | 1.29 | 99.1 | 120 |
| Cam Schlittler | 13-6 | 2.01 | 0.92 | 178.2 | 220 |
4-4
W-L
13-6
3.81
ERA
Ldr 2.01
1.29
WHIP
Ldr 0.92
99.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 178.2
120
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 220
AI Model Win Probability
METS
31%
YANKEES
69%
▲ Edge: +4.30% (NYY)
METS
40%
Book Odds: +152
YANKEES
65%
Book Odds: -185
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0
60%
Under 8.0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
NYM By 1-2 runs
13.6%
NYM By 3-4 runs
7.8%
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.6%
NYY By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
3.5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.20
New York
5.5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.20
New York
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Yankees
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Sim
Yankees
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Yankees (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Sim
Mets (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
NYM @ NYY
0 - 2
Sep 12, 2026
NYM @ NYY
12 - 2
Sep 11, 2026
NYM @ NYY
4 - 6
May 17, 2026
NYY @ NYM
6 - 7
May 16, 2026
NYY @ NYM
3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
New York
NYY
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.705
OPS
▲
1.041
204
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+108.8% more
New York: 9.0
vs
New York: 4.3
Errors (L5)
+35.0% more
New York: 0.6
vs
New York: 0.3
Slugging Pct (Season)
+19.9%
New York: 59.4%
vs
New York: 39.5%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+13.7%
New York: 44.7%
vs
New York: 31.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
3.5
0
NYY Score
5.5
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.2 / 11.3
3.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 3.1
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 7.7
9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
14.8 / 22.1
9.0 / 4.0
Walks
2.9 / 2.7
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +139 / -151
→
+152 / -185
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
NYM
NYY
NYM
ML
47%
76-85
50%
79-80
52%
85-77
48%
76-83
ATS
59%
95-66
58%
93-66
53%
86-76
49%
78-81
TTL
53%
81-73-7
55%
80-66-13
53%
82-72-7
51%
74-72-13
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