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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

66-84  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sun, Sep 13 • 3:05 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

82-68  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Noah Cameron
STARTING PITCHER

Noah Cameron

#65 | Starting Pitcher
@
Payton Tolle
STARTING PITCHER

Payton Tolle

#70 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Noah Cameron 9-8 3.93 1.20 160.1 145
Payton Tolle 9-6 3.15 1.08 137.0 159
9-8 W-L 9-6
3.93 ERA Ldr 3.15
1.20 WHIP Ldr 1.08
160.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 137.0
145 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 159
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
39%
📊
RED SOX
61%
ROYALS 39% Book Odds: +159
RED SOX 66% Book Odds: -194
Book Implied: 38.60% / 66%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 7.5 60%
Under 7.5 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
RoyalsKC (+1.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

64.6%

Red Sox Cover

35.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

KC By 1-2 runs

15.0%

KC By 3-4 runs

9.2%

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.7%

BOS By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3
5
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
3
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3
4
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Sox Win
61% Win Prob
B
Sim Red Sox Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Royals (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.5
B
Sim Royals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
B
Sim u7.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 KC @ BOS 1 - 4
Sep 12, 2026 KC @ BOS 1 - 5
Sep 11, 2026 KC @ BOS 3 - 2
May 20, 2026 BOS @ KC 4 - 3
May 19, 2026 BOS @ KC 7 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Boston BOS
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.26 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.316 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.718 ▲
OPS
.409
170 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +52.7% more
Boston: 9.9 vs Kansas City: 6.5
Errors (L5) +22.0% more
Boston: 0.4 vs Kansas City: 0.1
Hits (L5) +14.6% more
Boston: 8.2 vs Kansas City: 7.1
Home Runs (Season) +98.8% more
Kansas City: 170.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 3.5 1
BOS Score 5.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.1 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 8.2 / 7.1 8.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.9 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.9 / 6.5 8.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 12.8 / 11.9 12.0 / 5.0
Walks 2.2 / 3.1 3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +149 / -181 → +159 / -194 ↑
10%TICKETS90%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
13%TICKETS87%
11%MONEY89%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 7.5
83%TICKETS17%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
KC
BOS
KC
ML
50% 80-80
55% 89-72
47% 76-87
56% 90-70
ATS
58% 93-67
57% 91-70
48% 79-84
58% 93-67
TTL
46% 72-83-5
58% 90-64-7
47% 74-83-6
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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