LOS ANGELES
DODGERSLAD
90-58 | Road
3
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
73-76 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Glasnow
#31 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Phillips
#30 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Glasnow | 4-0 | 3.12 | 0.88 | 57.2 | 70 |
| Tyler Phillips | 5-6 | 3.51 | 1.33 | 115.1 | 93 |
4-0
W-L
5-6
3.12 Ldr
ERA
3.51
0.88 Ldr
WHIP
1.33
57.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 115.1
70
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 93
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
59%
MARLINS
41%
DODGERS
63%
Book Odds: -168
MARLINS
42%
Book Odds: +138
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 8.0
65%
Under 8.0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
MIAMI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
LAD By 1-2 runs
19.7%
LAD By 3-4 runs
17.5%
MIA By 1-2 runs
15.0%
MIA By 3-4 runs
9.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Los Angeles
5.5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.80
Miami
4
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
Los Angeles
4
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.80
Miami
5
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Dodgers
Loss
59% Win Prob
B
Sim
Marlins
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Marlins (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
C
Sim
Marlins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.5
A
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
LAD @ MIA
4 - 6
Sep 12, 2026
LAD @ MIA
3 - 4
Sep 11, 2026
LAD @ MIA
6 - 2
Apr 29, 2026
MIA @ LAD
3 - 2
Apr 28, 2026
MIA @ LAD
2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles
LAD
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.94
▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.257
▲
Avg (AVG)
.249
.338
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.424
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.762
▲
OPS
.727
204
▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+47.0% more
Los Angeles: 1.6
vs
Miami: 0.9
Walks (L5)
+31.3% more
Los Angeles: 5.0
vs
Miami: 3.5
Home Runs (Season)
+17.6% more
Los Angeles: 204.0
vs
Miami: 168.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+10.7% more
Los Angeles: 4.9
vs
Miami: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LAD Score
5.5
3
MIA Score
4.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.3
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
11.4 / 8.7
7.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.6
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 7.9
5.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
17.1 / 16.2
11.0 / 10.0
Walks
3.5 / 5.0
5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -195 / +165
→
-168 / +138
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5
→
8
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD
Advantage
103-63-0
(62.1%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3%
Total +/-: 0.0
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
LAD
MIA
LAD
ML
48%
78-84
56%
92-73
55%
88-72
48%
79-87
ATS
56%
91-71
59%
98-67
54%
86-74
43%
72-94
TTL
56%
88-69-5
48%
77-82-6
53%
82-73-5
44%
70-90-6
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