SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
80-68 | Road
7
SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
62-87 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Michael King
#34 | Starting Pitcher@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Cesar Perdomo
#83 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael King | 10-9 | 3.00 | 1.17 | 168.0 | 144 |
| Cesar Perdomo | 0-0 | 0.90 | 0.80 | 10.0 | 8 |
10-9
W-L
0-0
3.00
ERA
Ldr 0.90
1.17
WHIP
Ldr 0.80
168.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
10.0
144 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
8
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
33%
GIANTS
67%
▲ Edge: +28.40% (SF)
PADRES
63%
Book Odds: -172
GIANTS
39%
Book Odds: +158
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.4 (Over)
Over 8.0
60%
Under 8.0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (San Francisco)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)
SD By 1-2 runs
13.6%
SD By 3-4 runs
7.8%
SF By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SF By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
3.2
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 4.80
San Francisco
5.2
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 4.80
San Francisco
6
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Giants
Loss
67% Win Prob
A
Sim
Giants
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Giants (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Sim
Giants (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.4
B
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
SD @ SF
6 - 4
Sep 12, 2026
SD @ SF
7 - 6
Sep 11, 2026
SD @ SF
7 - 5
Aug 2, 2026
SF @ SD
4 - 5
Aug 1, 2026
SF @ SD
5 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
San Francisco
SF
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.925
▲
OPS
.706
4
Home Runs
▲
178
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+4350.0% more
San Francisco: 178.0
vs
San Diego: 4.0
Errors (L5)
+112.0% more
San Francisco: 1.3
vs
San Diego: 0.1
Home Runs (L5)
+13.0% more
San Francisco: 1.0
vs
San Diego: 0.8
Walks (L5)
+31.4% more
San Diego: 4.6
vs
San Francisco: 3.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
3.2
7
SF Score
5.2
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.3 / 0.1
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.6 / 10.5
8.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.8
4.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 8.5
4.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
12.6 / 17.3
20.0 / 21.0
Walks
3.1 / 4.6
6.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -150 / +136
→
-172 / +158
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
SD
SF
SD
ML
49%
79-81
51%
85-83
53%
85-75
51%
85-82
ATS
62%
100-60
54%
91-77
52%
83-77
55%
92-75
TTL
55%
82-68-10
51%
82-80-6
46%
68-81-11
54%
86-74-6
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …