BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
72-77 | Road
3
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
74-75 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Bradish
#38 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Spencer Miles
#62 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Bradish | 7-13 | 3.91 | 1.42 | 152.0 | 140 |
| Spencer Miles | 6-2 | 2.77 | 1.05 | 87.2 | 81 |
7-13
W-L
6-2
3.91
ERA
Ldr 2.77
1.42
WHIP
Ldr 1.05
152.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
87.2
140 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
81
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
42%
BLUE JAYS
58%
▲ Edge: +0.80% (TOR)
ORIOLES
47%
Book Odds: +113
BLUE JAYS
58%
Book Odds: -136
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0
60%
Under 8.0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
BAL By 1-2 runs
15.3%
BAL By 3-4 runs
9.5%
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TOR By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
3.8
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3.20
Toronto
5.2
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3.20
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays
Win
58% Win Prob
C
Sim
Orioles
Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim
Orioles (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 23, 2026
TOR @ BAL
2 - 4
Sep 21, 2026
TOR @ BAL
3 - 4
Sep 13, 2026
BAL @ TOR
1 - 8
Sep 12, 2026
BAL @ TOR
3 - 7
Sep 11, 2026
BAL @ TOR
7 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Toronto
TOR
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.711
▲
OPS
.692
199
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.3%
Toronto: 24.7%
vs
Baltimore: 23.4%
Errors (L5)
+48.0% more
Baltimore: 0.9
vs
Toronto: 0.4
Home Runs (Season)
+23.6% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Toronto: 152.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+10.3% more
Baltimore: 4.5
vs
Toronto: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
3.8
3
TOR Score
5.2
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.9
3.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.2 / 8.8
11.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.3
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.5 / 9.3
10.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
14.7 / 14.3
19.0 / 11.0
Walks
2.6 / 2.9
5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -116 / -104
→
+113 / -136
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1 / +1
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
BAL
TOR
BAL
ML
46%
74-87
53%
83-73
50%
80-80
57%
90-69
ATS
56%
90-71
61%
95-60-1
49%
79-81
57%
90-68-1
TTL
51%
80-76-5
54%
81-70-5
45%
70-85-5
51%
78-75-6
Contextual Game News
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