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NEW YORK

METSNYM

69-79  |  Road

12
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 1:35 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

85-63  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Zac Thornton

#49 | Starting Pitcher
@
Gerrit Cole
STARTING PITCHER

Gerrit Cole

#45 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Zac Thornton 3-5 3.53 1.19 66.1 51
Gerrit Cole 8-8 3.41 1.09 111.0 113
3-5 W-L 8-8
3.53 ERA Ldr 3.41
1.19 WHIP Ldr 1.09
66.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 111.0
51 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 113
AI Model Win Probability
METS
42%
📊
YANKEES
58%
METS 42% Book Odds: +141
YANKEES 63% Book Odds: -170
Book Implied: 41.50% / 63%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.0 56%
Under 8.0 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
MetsNYM (+1.5) 0 YankeesNYY (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

64.6%

Yankees Cover

35.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

NYM By 1-2 runs

15.0%

NYM By 3-4 runs

9.2%

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.7%

NYY By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.20
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.20
4
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Yankees Loss
58% Win Prob
C
Sim Mets Win
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Mets (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
B
Sim Mets (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
B
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 NYM @ NYY 0 - 2
Sep 12, 2026 NYM @ NYY 12 - 2
Sep 11, 2026 NYM @ NYY 4 - 6
May 17, 2026 NYY @ NYM 6 - 7
May 16, 2026 NYY @ NYM 3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
New York NYY
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.705
OPS
▲ 1.041
204 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +108.8% more
New York: 9.0 vs New York: 4.3
Errors (L5) +52.0% more
New York: 0.9 vs New York: 0.4
Walks (L5) +22.7% more
New York: 3.8 vs New York: 3.1
Slugging Pct (Season) +19.9%
New York: 59.4% vs New York: 39.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 3.5 12
NYY Score 5.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.3 / 9.9 7.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 1.6 1.0 / 6.0
Strikeouts 9.3 / 8.1 6.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 16.7 / 16.1 11.0 / 34.0
Walks 3.8 / 3.1 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +152 / -185 → +141 / -170 ↓
13%TICKETS87%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
20%TICKETS80%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8
93%TICKETS7%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
NYM
NYY
NYM
ML
47% 76-85
50% 79-80
52% 85-77
48% 76-83
ATS
59% 95-66
58% 93-66
53% 86-76
49% 78-81
TTL
53% 81-73-7
55% 80-66-13
53% 82-72-7
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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