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INDIANAPOLIS

COLTSIND

0-2  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sun, Sep 20 • 8:20 PM ET
Arrowhead Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

CHIEFSKC

2-0  |  Home

33
Key Game
Rigoberto Sanchez
KEY GAME

Rigoberto Sanchez

#8 | Punter
@
Matt Araiza
KEY GAME

Matt Araiza

#14 | Punter
Player
Rigoberto Sanchez None-None
Matt Araiza None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COLTS
31%
📊
CHIEFS
69%
▲ Edge: +1.80% (IND)
COLTS 30% Book Odds: +237
CHIEFS 73% Book Odds: -272
Book Implied: 29.70% / 73.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.5
Projected
Book Total
46.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 46.0 54%
Under 46.0 46%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Spread
+6
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Indianapolis)
ColtsIND (+6) 0 ChiefsKC (-6)
Indianapolis Colts (+6) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Colts Cover

54.3%

Chiefs Cover

45.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around IND +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

IND By 1-6 points

15.9%

IND By 7-13 points

14.2%

KC By 1-6 points

16.8%

KC By 7-13 points

16.5%

AI Model Projected Score
23
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Implied: 20
24.5
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 26
Simulated Score
20
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Implied: 20
27
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 26
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Chiefs Win
69% Win Prob
C
Sim Chiefs Win
75% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Colts (+6) Win
Proj Spread: +1.5
B
Sim Chiefs (-6) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o46.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.5
C
Sim o46.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 IND @ KC 30 - 33
Nov 23, 2025 IND @ KC 20 - 23
Sep 25, 2022 KC @ IND 17 - 20
Oct 6, 2019 IND @ KC 19 - 13
Jan 12, 2019 IND @ KC 13 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +66.6% more
Kansas City: 150.5 vs Indianapolis: 90.3
Total Yards (L5) +32.5% more
Kansas City: 348.0 vs Indianapolis: 262.5
First Downs (L5) +21.9% more
Kansas City: 19.6 vs Indianapolis: 16.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +17.0% more
Kansas City: 0.5 vs Indianapolis: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 23.0 30
KC Score 24.5 33
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.6 / 16.1 29.0 / 24.0
Net Passing Yards 197.5 / 172.2 371.0 / 210.0
Rushing Yards 150.5 / 90.3 152.0 / 119.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.38 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 348.0 / 262.5 523.0 / 329.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.5 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.2 / 4.8 6.7 / 5.2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +270 / -340 → +237 / -272 ↓
3%TICKETS97%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +6.5 / -6.5 → +6 / -6 ↓
19%TICKETS81%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5 → 46 ↓
35%TICKETS65%
27%MONEY73%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
0-2-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -10.5 ATS +/-: -6.0
KC Advantage
2-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: +7.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
1-1-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -10.5 ATS +/-: -6.0
KC
1-1-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: +7.8
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
2-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +16.5
KC
1-1-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +8.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
IND
KC
IND
ML
100% 2-0
100% 2-0
100% 2-0
100% 2-0
ATS
100% 2-0
50% 1-1
50% 1-1
50% 1-1
TTL
50% 1-1
100% 2-0
50% 1-1
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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