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WASHINGTON

COMMANDERSWSH

0-2  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sun, Sep 20 • 4:25 PM ET
AT&T Stadium
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

COWBOYSDAL

1-1  |  Home

37
Key Game
Tress Way
KEY GAME

Tress Way

#10 | Punter
@
Bryan Anger
KEY GAME

Bryan Anger

#5 | Punter
Player
Tress Way None-None
Bryan Anger None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COMMANDERS
35%
📊
COWBOYS
65%
COMMANDERS 36% Book Odds: +180
COWBOYS 69% Book Odds: -218
Book Implied: 35.70% / 68.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 51.5 48%
Under 51.5 52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.6
DALLAS
Book Spread
-3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (Dallas)
CommandersWSH (+3.5) 0 CowboysDAL (-3.5)
Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Commanders Cover

31.9%

Cowboys Cover

68.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DAL -6.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

WSH By 1-6 points

13.1%

WSH By 7-13 points

9.9%

DAL By 1-6 points

16.6%

DAL By 7-13 points

19.2%

AI Model Projected Score
22.2
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 24
28.8
DALLAS
Book Implied: 27.50
Simulated Score
23
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 24
30
DALLAS
Book Implied: 27.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Cowboys Win
65% Win Prob
B
Sim Cowboys Win
75% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Cowboys (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.6
B
Sim Cowboys (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
D
Sim o51.5 Win
Proj Total: 53.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 WSH @ DAL 20 - 37
Dec 25, 2025 DAL @ WSH 30 - 23
Oct 19, 2025 WSH @ DAL 22 - 44
Jan 5, 2025 WSH @ DAL 23 - 19
Nov 24, 2024 DAL @ WSH 34 - 26
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +61.2% more
Dallas: 243.5 vs Washington: 151.0
First Downs (L5) +35.6% more
Dallas: 21.8 vs Washington: 16.1
Total Yards (L5) +28.9% more
Dallas: 340.9 vs Washington: 264.5
Yards Per Play (L5) +24.0% more
Dallas: 5.5 vs Washington: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 22.2 20
DAL Score 28.8 37
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.8 / 16.1 20.0 / 24.0
Net Passing Yards 243.5 / 151.0 266.0 / 207.0
Rushing Yards 97.4 / 113.5 66.0 / 182.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.64 / 0.57
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 340.9 / 264.5 332.0 / 389.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 0.9 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.5 / 4.4 6.1 / 5.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +170 / -205 → +180 / -218 ↑
14%TICKETS86%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +4.5 / -4.5 → +3.5 / -3.5 ↓
55%TICKETS45%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 51.5
32%TICKETS68%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
1-3-1 (25.0%)
Margin: -6.8 ATS +/-: -2.8
DAL Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -6.8 ATS +/-: -2.8
DAL Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +8.0
DAL
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +4.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
WSH
DAL
WSH
ML
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
50% 2-2-1
ATS
75% 3-1-1
40% 2-3
100% 4-0-1
80% 4-1
TTL
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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