Home / NFL Projections NFL / Saints @ Ravens NO @ BAL

NEW ORLEANS

SAINTSNO

1-1  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sun, Sep 20 • 1:00 PM ET
M&T Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

RAVENSBAL

1-1  |  Home

17
Key Game
Ryan Wright
KEY GAME

Ryan Wright

#17 | Punter
@
Ryan Eckley
KEY GAME

Ryan Eckley

#30 | Punter
Player
Ryan Wright None-None
Ryan Eckley None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAINTS
25%
📊
RAVENS
75%
SAINTS 25% Book Odds: +295
RAVENS 79% Book Odds: -375
Book Implied: 25.30% / 78.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.6
Projected
Book Total
45.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 (Over)
Over 45.5 51%
Under 45.5 49%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
-8.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Baltimore)
SaintsNO (+8.5) 0 RavensBAL (-8.5)
Baltimore Ravens (-8.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Saints Cover

23.8%

Ravens Cover

76.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BAL -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

NO By 1-6 points

10.7%

NO By 7-13 points

7.3%

BAL By 1-6 points

15.3%

BAL By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
17.8
NEW ORLEANS
Book Implied: 18.50
27.8
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 27
Simulated Score
19
NEW ORLEANS
Book Implied: 18.50
27
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 27
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Ravens Loss
75% Win Prob
A
Sim Ravens Loss
79% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Ravens (-8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Saints (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: +8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o45.5 Loss
Proj Total: 45.6
D
Sim o45.5 Loss
Proj Total: 46.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 NO @ BAL 24 - 17
Nov 7, 2022 BAL @ NO 27 - 13
Oct 21, 2018 NO @ BAL 24 - 23
Nov 24, 2014 BAL @ NO 34 - 27
Dec 19, 2010 NO @ BAL 24 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +70.0% more
Baltimore: 186.7 vs New Orleans: 109.8
Yards Per Play (L5) +30.5% more
Baltimore: 6.9 vs New Orleans: 5.3
Total Yards (L5) +15.9% more
Baltimore: 421.1 vs New Orleans: 363.4
Turnovers (L5) +15.4% more
New Orleans: 1.5 vs Baltimore: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 17.8 24
BAL Score 27.8 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.3 / 24.0 19.0 / 19.0
Net Passing Yards 234.4 / 253.5 204.0 / 233.0
Rushing Yards 186.7 / 109.8 108.0 / 65.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.44 / 0.53
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 421.1 / 363.4 312.0 / 298.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.5 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 6.9 / 5.3 5.6 / 4.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +275 / -345 → +295 / -375 ↑
3%TICKETS97%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +7.5 / -7.5 → +8.5 / -8.5 ↑
18%TICKETS82%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: 46.5 → 45.5 ↓
25%TICKETS75%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -6.6 ATS +/-: -4.0
BAL Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -6.6 ATS +/-: -4.0
BAL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +8.1
BAL
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
NO
BAL
NO
ML
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
ATS
50% 2-2-1
20% 1-4
100% 4-0-1
40% 2-3
TTL
20% 1-4
0% 0-5
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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