Home / NFL Projections NFL / Browns @ Buccaneers CLE @ TB

CLEVELAND

BROWNSCLE

1-1  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sun, Sep 20 • 1:00 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

BUCCANEERSTB

0-2  |  Home

19
Key Game
Corey Bojorquez
KEY GAME

Corey Bojorquez

#13 | Punter
@
Riley Dixon
KEY GAME

Riley Dixon

#9 | Punter
Player
Corey Bojorquez None-None
Riley Dixon None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BROWNS
31%
📊
BUCCANEERS
69%
▲ Edge: +7.30% (CLE)
BROWNS 23% Book Odds: +330
BUCCANEERS 81% Book Odds: -426
Book Implied: 23.30% / 81%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
43.5
Projected
Book Total
41.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 41.5 56%
Under 41.5 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.5
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
+8.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Cleveland)
BrownsCLE (+8.5) 0 BuccaneersTB (-8.5)
Cleveland Browns (+8.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Browns Cover

62.6%

Buccaneers Cover

37.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CLE +4.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

CLE By 1-6 points

14.4%

CLE By 7-13 points

11.7%

TB By 1-6 points

16.9%

TB By 7-13 points

18.3%

AI Model Projected Score
19.5
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 16.50
24
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 25
Simulated Score
24
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 16.50
17
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 25
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Buccaneers Loss
69% Win Prob
B
Sim Browns Win
75% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Browns (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.5
B
Sim Browns (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o41.5 Win
Proj Total: 43.5
B
Sim u41.5 Loss
Proj Total: 41.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 CLE @ TB 23 - 19
Nov 27, 2022 TB @ CLE 17 - 23
Oct 21, 2018 CLE @ TB 23 - 26
Nov 2, 2014 TB @ CLE 17 - 22
Sep 12, 2010 CLE @ TB 14 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +24.4% more
Tampa Bay: 2.0 vs Cleveland: 1.6
Net Passing Yards (L5) +20.1% more
Cleveland: 191.9 vs Tampa Bay: 153.4
Yards Per Play (L5) +16.7% more
Cleveland: 5.3 vs Tampa Bay: 4.4
Total Yards (L5) +14.8% more
Cleveland: 292.7 vs Tampa Bay: 249.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 19.5 23
TB Score 24.0 19
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.9 / 16.1 17.0 / 15.0
Net Passing Yards 153.4 / 191.9 176.0 / 223.0
Rushing Yards 95.9 / 100.8 137.0 / 44.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.44 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 249.3 / 292.7 313.0 / 267.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 1.6 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 4.4 / 5.3 5.0 / 4.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +230 / -285 → +330 / -426 ↑
3%TICKETS97%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +6.5 / -6.5 → +8.5 / -8.5 ↑
12%TICKETS88%
11%MONEY89%
Total (O/U)
Open: 42.5 → 41.5 ↓
33%TICKETS67%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
1-1-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -1.5
TB
0-2-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -7.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE Advantage
1-1-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -1.5
TB
0-2-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -7.5
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
2-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +2.0
TB
2-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
CLE
TB
CLE
ML
50% 1-1
50% 1-1
100% 2-0
100% 2-0
ATS
50% 1-1
50% 1-1
100% 2-0
50% 1-1
TTL
50% 1-1
100% 2-0
50% 1-1
0% 0-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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