Home / NFL Projections NFL / Vikings @ Bears MIN @ CHI

MINNESOTA

VIKINGSMIN

2-0  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sun, Sep 20 • 1:00 PM ET
Soldier Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

BEARSCHI

1-1  |  Home

3
Key Game
Brett Thorson
KEY GAME

Brett Thorson

#19 | Punter
@
Tory Taylor
KEY GAME

Tory Taylor

#19 | Punter
Player
Brett Thorson None-None
Tory Taylor None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VIKINGS
35%
📊
BEARS
65%
VIKINGS 36% Book Odds: +180
BEARS 69% Book Odds: -218
Book Implied: 35.70% / 68.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
46.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 46.5 54%
Under 46.5 46%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.4
CHICAGO
Book Spread
-4.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.9 points (Chicago)
VikingsMIN (+4.5) 0 BearsCHI (-4.5)
Chicago Bears (-4.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Vikings Cover

27.4%

Bears Cover

72.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CHI -8.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHI)

MIN By 1-6 points

11.9%

MIN By 7-13 points

8.5%

CHI By 1-6 points

16.0%

CHI By 7-13 points

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
19.8
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 21
28.2
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 25.50
Simulated Score
21
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 21
25
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 25.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Bears Loss
65% Win Prob
B
Sim Bears Loss
65% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bears (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.4
B
Sim Vikings (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Sim u46.5 Win
Proj Total: 46.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 MIN @ CHI 9 - 3
Nov 16, 2025 CHI @ MIN 19 - 17
Sep 8, 2025 MIN @ CHI 27 - 24
Dec 16, 2024 CHI @ MIN 12 - 30
Nov 24, 2024 MIN @ CHI 30 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +89.5% more
Chicago: 191.0 vs Minnesota: 100.8
Total Yards (L5) +67.8% more
Chicago: 438.9 vs Minnesota: 261.5
Net Passing Yards (L5) +54.2% more
Chicago: 247.9 vs Minnesota: 160.7
Yards Per Play (L5) +43.6% more
Chicago: 6.6 vs Minnesota: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 19.8 9
CHI Score 28.2 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.4 / 17.7 17.0 / 11.0
Net Passing Yards 247.9 / 160.7 163.0 / 127.0
Rushing Yards 191.0 / 100.8 134.0 / 119.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 438.9 / 261.5 297.0 / 246.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.3 2.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 6.6 / 4.6 4.2 / 4.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +160 / -192 → +180 / -218 ↑
9%TICKETS91%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3.5 / -3.5 → +4.5 / -4.5 ↑
36%TICKETS64%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: 45.5 → 46.5 ↑
27%TICKETS73%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: +7.1
CHI
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: +2.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: +7.1
CHI
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: +2.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -8.3
CHI
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHI
MIN
CHI
MIN
ML
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
TTL
0% 0-5
0% 0-5
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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