Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / N Dakota St @ Sacramento St NDSU @ SAC

NORTH DAKOTA STATE

N DAKOTA STNDSU

4-0  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 10:30 PM ET
Hornet Stadium
View Odds Details →

SACRAMENTO STATE

SACRAMENTO STSAC

1-3  |  Home

10
Key Game
Aaron Bickerton
KEY GAME

Aaron Bickerton

#39 | Punter
@
Hamish Adams
KEY GAME

Hamish Adams

#37 | Punter
Player
Aaron Bickerton None-None
Hamish Adams None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
N DAKOTA ST
62%
📊
SACRAMENTO ST
38%
▲ Edge: +32.30% (SAC)
N DAKOTA ST 98% Book Odds: -5000
SACRAMENTO ST 5% Book Odds: +1800
Book Implied: 98% / 5.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.0
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +3.5 (Under)
Over 50.5 43%
Under 50.5 57%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.4
SACRAMENTO STATE
Book Spread
+26.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.1 points (Sacramento State)
N Dakota StNDSU (-26.5) 0 Sacramento StSAC (+26.5)
Sacramento State Hornets (+26.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

N Dakota St Cover

35.0%

Sacramento St Cover

65.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around SAC +5.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

NDSU By 1-6 points

16.8%

NDSU By 7-13 points

18.7%

SAC By 1-6 points

13.9%

SAC By 7-13 points

10.9%

AI Model Projected Score
26.2
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Book Implied: 38.50
20.8
SACRAMENTO STATE
Book Implied: 12
Simulated Score
27
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Book Implied: 38.50
28
SACRAMENTO STATE
Book Implied: 12
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI N Dakota St Win
62% Win Prob
D
Sim Sacramento St Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Sacramento St (+26.5) Win
Proj Spread: +5.4
B
Sim Sacramento St (+26.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI u50.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Sim o50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 NDSU @ SAC 31 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
North Dakota State: 0.4 vs Sacramento State: 0.3
Turnovers (L5) +140.0% more
Sacramento State: 1.7 vs North Dakota State: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NDSU Score 26.2 31
SAC Score 20.8 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.5 / 20.7 20.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 142.1 / 134.0 90.0 / 152.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 362.7 / 373.3 328.0 / 362.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 0.3 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -9000 / +2500 → -5000 / +1800 ↑
98%TICKETS2%
97%MONEY3%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -28 / +28 → -26.5 / +26.5 ↑
19%TICKETS81%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53 → 50.5 ↓
85%TICKETS15%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NDSU Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 22.8 ATS +/-: +4.3
SAC
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: -3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NDSU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 22.8 ATS +/-: +4.3
SAC
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: -3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NDSU
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -2.8
SAC
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
NDSU
SAC
NDSU
ML
100% 3-0
100% 1-0
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
ATS
33% 1-2
100% 1-0
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
TTL
100% 3-0
100% 1-0
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Sacovie White-Helton Emerging as Georgia's Next Breakout Receiver
yahoo 1 week, 3 days ago
Gabe Jacas Impresses in NFL Debut, Highlights Illinois' Talent P…
headtopics 1 week, 6 days ago
Week 0 Chaos: Upsets, Blowouts, and a Newcomer Stealing the Show
yardbarker 3 weeks, 4 days ago
Rhode Island Rams Dominate Merrimack 34-7 in Season Opener Behin…
abcnews 3 weeks, 6 days ago
Von Miller's Hidden Role Gives Cowboys More Than Meets the Eye
headtopics 1 month ago