Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UAB @ Louisiana UAB @ UL

UAB

UABUAB

1-2  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 8:00 PM ET
Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOUISIANA

LOUISIANAUL

2-1  |  Home

21
Key Game
Badger Hargett
KEY GAME

Badger Hargett

#20 | Punter
@
Tony Sterner
KEY GAME

Tony Sterner

#95 | Place kicker
Player
Badger Hargett None-None
Tony Sterner None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UAB
26%
📊
LOUISIANA
74%
▲ Edge: +0.50% (UL)
UAB 31% Book Odds: +225
LOUISIANA 74% Book Odds: -278
Book Implied: 30.80% / 73.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.0
Projected
Book Total
55.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 55.5 51%
Under 55.5 49%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
LOUISIANA
Book Spread
-7
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Louisiana)
UABUAB (+7) 0 LouisianaUL (-7)
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (-7) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UAB Cover

21.6%

Louisiana Cover

78.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UL -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UL)

UAB By 1-6 points

10.0%

UAB By 7-13 points

6.6%

UL By 1-6 points

14.7%

UL By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
22.5
UAB
Book Implied: 24.20
33.5
LOUISIANA
Book Implied: 31.20
Simulated Score
23
UAB
Book Implied: 24.20
28
LOUISIANA
Book Implied: 31.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Louisiana Win
74% Win Prob
A
Sim Louisiana Win
68% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Louisiana (-7) Push
Proj Spread: -11.0
B
Sim UAB (+7) Push
Proj Spread: +5.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 56.0
D
Sim u55.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 UAB @ UL 14 - 21
Sep 16, 2023 UL @ UAB 41 - 21
Oct 23, 2020 UL @ UAB 24 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +21.0% more
UAB: 0.6 vs Louisiana: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +20.9% more
UAB: 1.8 vs Louisiana: 1.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +15.3% more
UAB: 207.8 vs Louisiana: 176.0
First Downs (L5) +13.6% more
UAB: 22.9 vs Louisiana: 19.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UAB Score 22.5 14
UL Score 33.5 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.8 / 22.9 21.0 / 11.0
Rushing Yards 176.0 / 207.8 225.0 / 74.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.6 0.38 / 0.17
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.59 / 0.41
Total Yards 379.8 / 395.0 335.0 / 218.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.8 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +295 / -375 → +225 / -278 ↓
3%TICKETS97%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +10 / -10 → +7 / -7 ↓
34%TICKETS66%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: 59.5 → 55.5 ↓
29%TICKETS71%
22%MONEY78%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UAB
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
UL Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 8.9 ATS +/-: +6.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UAB
3-4-1 (42.9%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
UL Advantage
5-2-1 (71.4%)
Margin: 8.9 ATS +/-: +6.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UAB
1-7-0
O: 12.5% / U: 87.5% Total +/-: -5.3
UL
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UL
UAB
UL
UAB
ML
88% 7-1
75% 6-2
75% 6-2
100% 8-0
ATS
57% 4-3-1
57% 4-3-1
71% 5-2-1
86% 6-1-1
TTL
38% 3-5
38% 3-5
50% 4-4
50% 4-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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