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ARKANSAS STATE

ARKANSAS STARST

1-2  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 8:00 PM ET
Amon G. Carter Stadium
View Odds Details →

TCU

TCUTCU

2-1  |  Home

31
Key Game
Brandon Barnes
KEY GAME

Brandon Barnes

#8 | Safety
@
John Hoyet Chance
KEY GAME

John Hoyet Chance

#48 | Punter
Player
Brandon Barnes None-None
John Hoyet Chance None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARKANSAS ST
6%
📊
TCU
94%
▲ Edge: +0.80% (TCU)
ARKANSAS ST 11% Book Odds: +800
TCU 93% Book Odds: -1350
Book Implied: 11.10% / 93.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.5
Projected
Book Total
56.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +4.0 (Under)
Over 56.5 42%
Under 56.5 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.5
TCU
Book Spread
-18.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (TCU)
Arkansas StARST (+18.5) 0 TCUTCU (-18.5)
TCU Horned Frogs (-18.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Arkansas St Cover

2.1%

TCU Cover

97.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TCU -28.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TCU)

ARST By 1-6 points

1.3%

ARST By 7-13 points

0.5%

TCU By 1-6 points

3.5%

TCU By 7-13 points

8.4%

AI Model Projected Score
12
ARKANSAS STATE
Book Implied: 19
40.5
TCU
Book Implied: 37.50
Simulated Score
21
ARKANSAS STATE
Book Implied: 19
37
TCU
Book Implied: 37.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI TCU Win
94% Win Prob
A
Sim TCU Win
94% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI TCU (-18.5) Win
Proj Spread: -28.5
A
Sim Arkansas St (+18.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +16.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u56.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.5
B
Sim o56.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 ARST @ TCU 7 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +38.3% more
TCU: 213.6 vs Arkansas State: 154.4
Total Yards (L5) +34.6% more
TCU: 541.4 vs Arkansas State: 402.3
First Downs (L5) +28.9% more
TCU: 27.3 vs Arkansas State: 21.2
Turnovers (L5) +36.6% more
Arkansas State: 2.1 vs TCU: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARST Score 12.0 7
TCU Score 40.5 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 27.3 / 21.2 21.0 / 11.0
Rushing Yards 213.6 / 154.4 131.0 / 128.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards 541.4 / 402.3 468.0 / 261.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 2.1 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +850 / -1449 → +800 / -1350
1%TICKETS99%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +20.5 / -20.5 → +18.5 / -18.5 ↓
39%TICKETS61%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: 57.5 → 56.5 ↓
57%TICKETS43%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARST
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -1.8
TCU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARST
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -1.8
TCU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ARST
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.3
TCU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -12.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TCU
ARST
TCU
ARST
ML
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
100% 6-0
ATS
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
67% 4-2
TTL
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
33% 2-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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