Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / New Mexico @ Oklahoma UNM @ OU

NEW MEXICO

NEW MEXICOUNM

2-1  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 7:30 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
View Odds Details →

OKLAHOMA

OKLAHOMAOU

2-1  |  Home

14
Key Game
Michael Kern
KEY GAME

Michael Kern

#19 | Punter
@
Grayson Miller
KEY GAME

Grayson Miller

#43 | Place kicker
Player
Michael Kern None-None
Grayson Miller None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NEW MEXICO
6%
📊
OKLAHOMA
94%
NEW MEXICO 9% Book Odds: +1046
OKLAHOMA 95% Book Odds: -1797
Book Implied: 8.70% / 94.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
45.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +12.5 (Over)
Over 45.5 77%
Under 45.5 23%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.4
OKLAHOMA
Book Spread
-21
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.4 points (Oklahoma)
New MexicoUNM (+21) 0 OklahomaOU (-21)
Oklahoma Sooners (-21) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

New Mexico Cover

2.1%

Oklahoma Cover

97.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around OU -28.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OU)

UNM By 1-6 points

1.3%

UNM By 7-13 points

0.5%

OU By 1-6 points

3.6%

OU By 7-13 points

8.5%

AI Model Projected Score
14.8
NEW MEXICO
Book Implied: 12.20
43.2
OKLAHOMA
Book Implied: 33.20
Simulated Score
23
NEW MEXICO
Book Implied: 12.20
30
OKLAHOMA
Book Implied: 33.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Oklahoma Win
94% Win Prob
B
Sim Oklahoma Win
75% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Oklahoma (-21) Loss
Proj Spread: -28.4
C
Sim New Mexico (+21) Win
Proj Spread: +7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o45.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
A
Sim o45.5 Loss
Proj Total: 53.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 UNM @ OU 6 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +91.0% more
Oklahoma: 1.5 vs New Mexico: 0.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +46.8% more
New Mexico: 207.2 vs Oklahoma: 110.2
First Downs (L5) +22.1% more
New Mexico: 21.5 vs Oklahoma: 16.8
Total Yards (L5) +8.3% more
New Mexico: 365.9 vs Oklahoma: 335.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNM Score 14.8 6
OU Score 43.2 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.8 / 21.5 14.0 / 12.0
Rushing Yards 110.2 / 207.2 61.0 / 69.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.47 / 0.21
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 335.7 / 365.9 299.0 / 185.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 0.5 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +1049 / -2295 → +1046 / -1797 ↓
1%TICKETS99%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +23.5 / -23.5 → +21 / -21 ↓
43%TICKETS57%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: 48 → 45.5 ↓
81%TICKETS19%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNM
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 28.7 ATS +/-: +17.8
OU
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 17.3 ATS +/-: -5.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNM Advantage
3-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 28.7 ATS +/-: +17.8
OU
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 17.3 ATS +/-: -5.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UNM
1-2-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -1.8
OU
0-3-0
O: 0.0% / U: 100.0% Total +/-: -14.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OU
UNM
OU
UNM
ML
100% 3-0
100% 2-0
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
ATS
33% 1-2
0% 0-2
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
TTL
33% 1-2
0% 0-2
0% 0-3
0% 0-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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