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MICHIGAN STATE

MICHIGAN STMSU

2-1  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 7:30 PM ET
Notre Dame Stadium
View Odds Details →

NOTRE DAME

NOTRE DAMEND

3-0  |  Home

27
Key Game
Rhys Dakin
KEY GAME

Rhys Dakin

#9 | Punter
@
Jasper Scaife
KEY GAME

Jasper Scaife

#39 | Punter
Player
Rhys Dakin None-None
Jasper Scaife None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MICHIGAN ST
34%
📊
NOTRE DAME
66%
▲ Edge: +28.60% (MSU)
MICHIGAN ST 5% Book Odds: +1800
NOTRE DAME 98% Book Odds: -5000
Book Implied: 5.30% / 98%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.4
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.1 (Under)
Over 51.5 50%
Under 51.5 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+7.0
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Spread
+28.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.5 points (Michigan State)
Michigan StMSU (+28.5) 0 Notre DameND (-28.5)
Michigan State Spartans (+28.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Michigan St Cover

69.1%

Notre Dame Cover

30.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MSU +7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSU)

MSU By 1-6 points

12.9%

MSU By 7-13 points

9.6%

ND By 1-6 points

16.5%

ND By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
22.2
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Implied: 11.50
29.2
NOTRE DAME
Book Implied: 40
Simulated Score
24
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Implied: 11.50
40
NOTRE DAME
Book Implied: 40
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Notre Dame Win
66% Win Prob
D
Sim Notre Dame Win
94% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Michigan St (+28.5) Win
Proj Spread: +7.0
A
Sim Michigan St (+28.5) Win
Proj Spread: +16.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u51.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.4
D
Sim o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 64.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 MSU @ ND 10 - 27
Sep 23, 2017 ND @ MSU 38 - 18
Sep 17, 2016 MSU @ ND 36 - 28
Sep 21, 2013 MSU @ ND 13 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +51.0% more
Michigan State: 0.7 vs Notre Dame: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSU Score 22.2 10
ND Score 29.2 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.0 / 22.5 20.0 / 11.0
Rushing Yards 164.0 / 173.6 161.0 / 44.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.62 / 0.38
Total Yards 441.7 / 409.0 395.0 / 167.0
Turnovers 0.2 / 0.7 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +2000 / -6500 → +1800 / -5000
3%TICKETS97%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +30 / -30 → +28.5 / -28.5 ↓
47%TICKETS53%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52 → 51.5 ↓
78%TICKETS22%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSU
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +7.3
ND Advantage
3-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 32.3 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSU Advantage
2-0-1 (100.0%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +7.3
ND
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 32.3 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MSU
1-2-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -6.8
ND
1-2-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ND
MSU
ND
MSU
ML
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
ATS
33% 1-2
100% 2-0-1
67% 2-1
50% 1-1-1
TTL
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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