Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / North Dakota @ Nebraska UND @ NEB

NORTH DAKOTA

NORTH DAKOTAUND

3-1  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 7:15 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
View Odds Details →

NEBRASKA

NEBRASKANEB

3-0  |  Home

34
Key Game
Luke Silvernale
KEY GAME

Luke Silvernale

#85 | Punter
@
Kyle Cunanan
KEY GAME

Kyle Cunanan

#91 | Place kicker
Player
Luke Silvernale None-None
Kyle Cunanan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NORTH DAKOTA
3%
📊
NEBRASKA
97%
▲ Edge: +0.20% (NEB)
NORTH DAKOTA 7% Book Odds: +1300
NEBRASKA 97% Book Odds: -2800
Book Implied: 7.10% / 96.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
63.0
Projected
Book Total
56.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 (Over)
Over 56.5 67%
Under 56.5 33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.4
NEBRASKA
Book Spread
-27.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.9 points (Nebraska)
North DakotaUND (+27.5) 0 NebraskaNEB (-27.5)
Nebraska Cornhuskers (-27.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

North Dakota Cover

0.6%

Nebraska Cover

99.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NEB -35.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NEB)

UND By 1-6 points

0.4%

UND By 7-13 points

0.1%

NEB By 1-6 points

1.3%

NEB By 7-13 points

3.9%

AI Model Projected Score
13.8
NORTH DAKOTA
Book Implied: 14.50
49.2
NEBRASKA
Book Implied: 42
Simulated Score
18
NORTH DAKOTA
Book Implied: 14.50
31
NEBRASKA
Book Implied: 42
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Nebraska Win
97% Win Prob
A
Sim Nebraska Win
90% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Nebraska (-27.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -35.4
C
Sim North Dakota (+27.5) Win
Proj Spread: +13.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI o56.5 Loss
Proj Total: 63.0
B
Sim u56.5 Win
Proj Total: 49.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 UND @ NEB 7 - 34
Sep 3, 2022 UND @ NEB 17 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +88.7% more
Nebraska: 224.2 vs North Dakota: 118.8
Total Yards (L5) +47.0% more
Nebraska: 452.3 vs North Dakota: 307.8
First Downs (L5) +23.4% more
Nebraska: 23.9 vs North Dakota: 19.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +17.0% more
Nebraska: 0.6 vs North Dakota: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UND Score 13.8 7
NEB Score 49.2 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.9 / 19.3 22.0 / 10.0
Rushing Yards 224.2 / 118.8 277.0 / 99.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.4 0.47 / 0.08
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.6 / 0.4
Total Yards 452.3 / 307.8 493.0 / 205.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.2 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +1400 / -3200 → +1300 / -2800
1%TICKETS99%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +24.5 / -24.5 → +27.5 / -27.5 ↑
65%TICKETS35%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 56.5 ↑
80%TICKETS20%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UND
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 22.8 ATS +/-: +4.3
NEB
3-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 34.7 ATS +/-: +7.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UND
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 22.8 ATS +/-: +4.3
NEB Advantage
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 34.7 ATS +/-: +7.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UND
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -2.8
NEB
2-1-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +6.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEB
UND
NEB
UND
ML
100% 3-0
100% 2-0
100% 3-0
100% 2-0
ATS
33% 1-2
0% 0-2
67% 2-1
50% 1-1
TTL
67% 2-1
50% 1-1
67% 2-1
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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