Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Ohio @ South Alabama OHIO @ USA

OHIO

OHIOOHIO

1-2  |  Road

36
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 7:00 PM ET
Hancock Whitney Stadium
View Odds Details →

SOUTH ALABAMA

SOUTH ALABAMAUSA

2-1  |  Home

41
Key Game
Magnus Haines
KEY GAME

Magnus Haines

#42 | Punter
@
Aleksi Pulkkinen
KEY GAME

Aleksi Pulkkinen

#40 | Punter
Player
Magnus Haines None-None
Aleksi Pulkkinen None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OHIO
55%
📊
SOUTH ALABAMA
45%
▲ Edge: +24% (OHIO)
OHIO 31% Book Odds: +220
SOUTH ALABAMA 73% Book Odds: -270
Book Implied: 31.20% / 73%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.6
Projected
Book Total
48.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 (Over)
Over 48.5 52%
Under 48.5 48%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
OHIO
Book Spread
+7
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Ohio)
OhioOHIO (+7) 0 South AlabamaUSA (-7)
Ohio Bobcats (+7) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ohio Cover

55.7%

South Alabama Cover

44.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around OHIO -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OHIO)

OHIO By 1-6 points

16.9%

OHIO By 7-13 points

16.8%

USA By 1-6 points

15.7%

USA By 7-13 points

13.8%

AI Model Projected Score
25.8
OHIO
Book Implied: 20.80
23.8
SOUTH ALABAMA
Book Implied: 27.80
Simulated Score
26
OHIO
Book Implied: 20.80
27
SOUTH ALABAMA
Book Implied: 27.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Ohio Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim South Alabama Win
53% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Ohio (+7) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
A
Sim Ohio (+7) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 49.6
D
Sim o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 53.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 OHIO @ USA 36 - 41
Sep 7, 2024 USA @ OHIO 20 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +75.2% more
Ohio: 1.2 vs South Alabama: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +30.0% more
South Alabama: 24.3 vs Ohio: 18.7
Total Yards (L5) +26.3% more
South Alabama: 419.3 vs Ohio: 331.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OHIO Score 25.8 36
USA Score 23.8 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.3 / 18.7 21.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 208.2 / 202.4 266.0 / 153.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.53 / 0.64
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 419.3 / 331.9 458.0 / 387.0
Turnovers 0.3 / 1.2 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +159 / -191 → +220 / -270 ↑
5%TICKETS95%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +4 / -4 → +7 / -7 ↑
49%TICKETS51%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 48.5 ↓
91%TICKETS9%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OHIO
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +1.3
USA
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +4.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OHIO
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +1.3
USA Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +4.5
⚖️ Over/Under
OHIO
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.0
USA
5-1-0
O: 83.3% / U: 16.7% Total +/-: +19.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USA
OHIO
USA
OHIO
ML
67% 4-2
80% 4-1
83% 5-1
100% 6-0
ATS
50% 3-3
40% 2-3
83% 5-1
33% 2-4
TTL
67% 4-2
40% 2-3
50% 3-3
83% 5-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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