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NEVADA

NEVADANEV

1-2  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 7:00 PM ET
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

MTSUMTSU

2-1  |  Home

27
Key Game
Ewan Baulch
KEY GAME

Ewan Baulch

#95 | Punter
@
Ashton Logan
KEY GAME

Ashton Logan

#92 | Punter
Player
Ewan Baulch None-None
Ashton Logan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NEVADA
36%
📊
MTSU
64%
▲ Edge: +23.80% (MTSU)
NEVADA 64% Book Odds: -180
MTSU 40% Book Odds: +150
Book Implied: 64.30% / 40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.6
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 (Over)
Over 50.5 52%
Under 50.5 48%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Spread
+3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.5 points (Middle Tennessee)
NevadaNEV (-3.5) 0 MTSUMTSU (+3.5)
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (+3.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nevada Cover

33.4%

MTSU Cover

66.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MTSU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTSU)

NEV By 1-6 points

13.5%

NEV By 7-13 points

10.4%

MTSU By 1-6 points

16.7%

MTSU By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
22.8
NEVADA
Book Implied: 27
28.8
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 23.50
Simulated Score
17
NEVADA
Book Implied: 27
31
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 23.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI MTSU Win
64% Win Prob
B
Sim MTSU Win
92% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI MTSU (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
A
Sim MTSU (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.6
D
Sim u50.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 NEV @ MTSU 20 - 27
Sep 13, 2025 MTSU @ NEV 14 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +10.5% more
Middle Tennessee: 401.5 vs Nevada: 363.4
Turnovers (L5) +68.7% more
Nevada: 2.3 vs Middle Tennessee: 0.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +29.7% more
Nevada: 210.8 vs Middle Tennessee: 148.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NEV Score 22.8 20
MTSU Score 28.8 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.2 / 20.3 19.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 148.1 / 210.8 157.0 / 78.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.27 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 401.5 / 363.4 330.0 / 263.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 2.3 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -217 / +179 → -180 / +150 ↑
93%TICKETS7%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -5.5 / +5.5 → -3.5 / +3.5 ↑
51%TICKETS49%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51 → 50.5 ↓
51%TICKETS49%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NEV
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: +5.4
MTSU Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NEV
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: +5.4
MTSU Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
NEV
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -0.7
MTSU
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTSU
NEV
MTSU
NEV
ML
83% 5-1
40% 2-3
100% 6-0
60% 3-2
ATS
50% 3-3
40% 2-3
50% 3-3
40% 2-3
TTL
50% 3-3
20% 1-4
67% 4-2
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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