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GEORGIA STATE

GEORGIA STGAST

2-1  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 7:00 PM ET
Acrisure Bounce House
View Odds Details →

UCF

UCFUCF

2-1  |  Home

44
Key Game
Samer Layous
KEY GAME

Samer Layous

#39 | Place kicker
@
Atticus Bertrams
KEY GAME

Atticus Bertrams

#49 | Punter
Player
Samer Layous None-None
Atticus Bertrams None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
GEORGIA ST
6%
📊
UCF
94%
▲ Edge: +2.50% (UCF)
GEORGIA ST 13% Book Odds: +675
UCF 91% Book Odds: -1050
Book Implied: 12.90% / 91.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
60.0
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +9.5 (Over)
Over 50.5 71%
Under 50.5 29%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.4
UCF
Book Spread
-17.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.9 points (UCF)
Georgia StGAST (+17.5) 0 UCFUCF (-17.5)
UCF Knights (-17.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Georgia St Cover

2.1%

UCF Cover

97.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UCF -28.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCF)

GAST By 1-6 points

1.3%

GAST By 7-13 points

0.5%

UCF By 1-6 points

3.6%

UCF By 7-13 points

8.5%

AI Model Projected Score
15.8
GEORGIA STATE
Book Implied: 16.50
44.2
UCF
Book Implied: 34
Simulated Score
26
GEORGIA STATE
Book Implied: 16.50
31
UCF
Book Implied: 34
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI UCF Win
94% Win Prob
A
Sim UCF Win
68% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI UCF (-17.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -28.4
A
Sim Georgia St (+17.5) Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o50.5 Win
Proj Total: 60.0
A
Sim o50.5 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 GAST @ UCF 30 - 44
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +35.9% more
Georgia State: 202.6 vs UCF: 129.9
First Downs (L5) +31.5% more
Georgia State: 22.9 vs UCF: 15.7
Total Yards (L5) +26.6% more
Georgia State: 459.5 vs UCF: 337.4
Turnovers (L5) +18.2% more
Georgia State: 1.3 vs UCF: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GAST Score 15.8 30
UCF Score 44.2 44
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.7 / 22.9 17.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 129.9 / 202.6 304.0 / 203.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.25 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 337.4 / 459.5 390.0 / 485.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.3 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +1000 / -1786 → +675 / -1050 ↓
1%TICKETS99%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +21 / -21 → +17.5 / -17.5 ↓
44%TICKETS56%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5 → 50.5 ↑
56%TICKETS44%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GAST Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 20.4 ATS +/-: +17.6
UCF
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.0 ATS +/-: +5.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GAST Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 20.4 ATS +/-: +17.6
UCF
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 10.0 ATS +/-: +5.2
⚖️ Over/Under
GAST
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.9
UCF
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCF
GAST
UCF
GAST
ML
67% 4-2
60% 3-2
100% 6-0
80% 4-1
ATS
33% 2-4
0% 0-5
33% 2-4
80% 4-1
TTL
50% 3-3
20% 1-4
33% 2-4
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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