Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Charlotte @ App State CLT @ APP

CHARLOTTE

CHARLOTTECLT

0-3  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 9:30 PM ET
Kidd Brewer Stadium
View Odds Details →

APP STATE

APP STATEAPP

3-0  |  Home

26
Key Game
Ian Kelly
KEY GAME

Ian Kelly

#44 | Punter
@
Jaxson Dunn
KEY GAME

Jaxson Dunn

#40 | Punter
Player
Ian Kelly None-None
Jaxson Dunn None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHARLOTTE
16%
📊
APP STATE
84%
▲ Edge: +3.10% (CLT)
CHARLOTTE 13% Book Odds: +675
APP STATE 91% Book Odds: -1050
Book Implied: 12.90% / 91.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.0
Projected
Book Total
53.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 53.5 53%
Under 53.5 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.6
APP STATE
Book Spread
-16.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (App State)
CharlotteCLT (+16.5) 0 App StateAPP (-16.5)
App State Mountaineers (-16.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Charlotte Cover

10.4%

App State Cover

89.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around APP -17.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (APP)

CLT By 1-6 points

5.5%

CLT By 7-13 points

2.9%

APP By 1-6 points

10.3%

APP By 7-13 points

17.1%

AI Model Projected Score
18.2
CHARLOTTE
Book Implied: 18.50
35.8
APP STATE
Book Implied: 35
Simulated Score
15
CHARLOTTE
Book Implied: 18.50
32
APP STATE
Book Implied: 35
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI App State Win
84% Win Prob
A
Sim App State Win
95% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI App State (-16.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.6
D
Sim Charlotte (+16.5) Win
Proj Spread: +17.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o53.5 Loss
Proj Total: 54.0
D
Sim u53.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 CLT @ APP 21 - 26
Aug 29, 2025 APP @ CLT 34 - 11
Sep 12, 2020 CLT @ APP 20 - 35
Sep 7, 2019 CLT @ APP 41 - 56
Sep 8, 2018 APP @ CLT 45 - 9
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +62.8% more
App State: 24.3 vs Charlotte: 14.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +52.5% more
App State: 175.1 vs Charlotte: 114.8
Total Yards (L5) +40.5% more
App State: 451.4 vs Charlotte: 321.3
Turnovers (L5) +31.4% more
Charlotte: 1.6 vs App State: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLT Score 18.2 21
APP Score 35.8 26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.3 / 14.9 22.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 175.1 / 114.8 90.0 / 36.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.44 / 0.1
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 451.4 / 321.3 435.0 / 247.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.6 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +830 / -1591 → +675 / -1050 ↓
1%TICKETS99%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +21 / -21 → +16.5 / -16.5 ↓
20%TICKETS80%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 53.5 ↑
58%TICKETS42%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLT
1-7-0 (12.5%)
Margin: -19.6 ATS +/-: -4.8
APP Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 4.1 ATS +/-: +2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLT
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -19.6 ATS +/-: -4.8
APP Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 4.1 ATS +/-: +2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
CLT
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +8.6
APP
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
APP
CLT
APP
CLT
ML
62% 5-3
75% 6-2
62% 5-3
75% 6-2
ATS
12% 1-7
50% 4-4
75% 6-2
75% 6-2
TTL
38% 3-5
50% 4-4
62% 5-3
50% 4-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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