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FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

FIUFIU

1-2  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 6:00 PM ET
Flagler Credit Union Stadium
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA ATLANTIC

FAUFAU

2-1  |  Home

16
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Felix Visser

#43 | Punter
@
Reed Chandley
KEY GAME

Reed Chandley

#91 | Punter
Player
Felix Visser None-None
Reed Chandley None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FIU
39%
📊
FAU
61%
▲ Edge: +4.30% (FIU)
FIU 35% Book Odds: +185
FAU 69% Book Odds: -225
Book Implied: 35.10% / 69.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
62.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +11.5 (Under)
Over 62.5 26%
Under 62.5 74%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.6
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Book Spread
+5.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Florida International)
FIUFIU (+5.5) 0 FAUFAU (-5.5)
Florida International Panthers (+5.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

FIU Cover

62.9%

FAU Cover

37.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around FIU +4.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FIU)

FIU By 1-6 points

14.4%

FIU By 7-13 points

11.6%

FAU By 1-6 points

16.9%

FAU By 7-13 points

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
23.2
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Book Implied: 28.50
27.8
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Book Implied: 34
Simulated Score
27
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Book Implied: 28.50
33
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Book Implied: 34
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI FAU Win
61% Win Prob
D
Sim FAU Win
72% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI FIU (+5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +4.6
D
Sim FIU (+5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u62.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
A
Sim u62.5 Win
Proj Total: 60.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 FIU @ FAU 10 - 16
Sep 13, 2025 FAU @ FIU 28 - 38
Sep 14, 2024 FIU @ FAU 20 - 38
Nov 12, 2022 FAU @ FIU 52 - 7
Oct 2, 2021 FIU @ FAU 21 - 58
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +22.8% more
Florida Atlantic: 26.1 vs Florida International: 21.3
Turnovers (L5) +19.5% more
Florida Atlantic: 2.1 vs Florida International: 1.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +8.0% more
Florida Atlantic: 0.5 vs Florida International: 0.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +42.2% more
Florida International: 145.7 vs Florida Atlantic: 84.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FIU Score 23.2 10
FAU Score 27.8 16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 26.1 / 21.3 17.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 84.3 / 145.7 56.0 / 95.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 434.9 / 439.1 258.0 / 357.0
Turnovers 2.1 / 1.7 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +224 / -280 → +185 / -225 ↓
3%TICKETS97%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +7 / -7 → +5.5 / -5.5 ↓
22%TICKETS78%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: 62.5 → 62.5
55%TICKETS45%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FIU
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
FAU Advantage
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: -10.3 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FIU
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
FAU
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: -10.3 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
FIU
1-2-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -18.8
FAU
2-1-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FAU
FIU
FAU
FIU
ML
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
ATS
33% 1-2
0% 0-3
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
TTL
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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