Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Stanford @ Duke STAN @ DUKE

STANFORD

STANFORDSTAN

1-2  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 4:00 PM ET
Wallace Wade Stadium
View Odds Details →

DUKE

DUKEDUKE

3-0  |  Home

35
Key Game
Aidan Flintoft
KEY GAME

Aidan Flintoft

#37 | Punter
@
Kade Reynoldson
KEY GAME

Kade Reynoldson

#41 | Punter
Player
Aidan Flintoft None-None
Kade Reynoldson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
STANFORD
27%
📊
DUKE
73%
▲ Edge: +1.30% (STAN)
STANFORD 25% Book Odds: +295
DUKE 79% Book Odds: -375
Book Implied: 25.30% / 78.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 (Over)
Over 51.5 65%
Under 51.5 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.4
DUKE
Book Spread
-9.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Duke)
StanfordSTAN (+9.5) 0 DukeDUKE (-9.5)
Duke Blue Devils (-9.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Stanford Cover

22.9%

Duke Cover

77.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DUKE -10.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DUKE)

STAN By 1-6 points

10.4%

STAN By 7-13 points

7.0%

DUKE By 1-6 points

15.1%

DUKE By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
23.8
STANFORD
Book Implied: 21
34.2
DUKE
Book Implied: 30.50
Simulated Score
16
STANFORD
Book Implied: 21
40
DUKE
Book Implied: 30.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Duke Win
73% Win Prob
C
Sim Duke Win
99% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Duke (-9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.4
D
Sim Duke (-9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
B
Sim o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 56.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 STAN @ DUKE 7 - 35
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +113.8% more
Duke: 176.4 vs Stanford: 82.5
Total Yards (L5) +23.3% more
Duke: 370.0 vs Stanford: 300.1
First Downs (L5) +16.1% more
Duke: 19.9 vs Stanford: 17.2
Time of Possession (L5) +8.0% more
Duke: 0.5 vs Stanford: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STAN Score 23.8 7
DUKE Score 34.2 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.9 / 17.2 22.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 176.4 / 82.5 268.0 / 73.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.18
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.62 / 0.38
Total Yards 370.0 / 300.1 470.0 / 237.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 0.8 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +285 / -373 → +295 / -375
5%TICKETS95%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +9.5 / -9.5 → +9.5 / -9.5
36%TICKETS64%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 51.5
82%TICKETS18%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STAN
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -19.0 ATS +/-: -9.2
DUKE Advantage
3-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 15.3 ATS +/-: +11.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STAN
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -19.0 ATS +/-: -9.2
DUKE Advantage
3-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 15.3 ATS +/-: +11.0
⚖️ Over/Under
STAN
2-1-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +3.5
DUKE
1-2-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -11.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DUKE
STAN
DUKE
STAN
ML
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
ATS
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
TTL
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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