Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Maine @ Boston College ME @ BC

MAINE

MAINEME

1-3  |  Road

16
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 2:00 PM ET
Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
View Odds Details →

BOSTON COLLEGE

BOSTON COLLEGEBC

2-1  |  Home

22
Key Game
Anthony Pecorella
KEY GAME

Anthony Pecorella

#82 | Punter
@
Bryce LaFollette
KEY GAME

Bryce LaFollette

#96 | Punter
Player
Anthony Pecorella None-None
Bryce LaFollette None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MAINE
5%
📊
BOSTON COLLEGE
95%
MAINE --
BOSTON COLLEGE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.4
Projected
Book Total
54.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.9 (Over)
Over 54.5 62%
Under 54.5 38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+30.0
MAINE
Book Spread
+37.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.5 points (Maine)
MaineME (+37.5) 0 Boston CollegeBC (-37.5)
Maine Black Bears (+37.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Maine Cover

98.4%

Boston College Cover

1.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ME +30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ME)

ME By 1-6 points

1.0%

ME By 7-13 points

0.4%

BC By 1-6 points

2.9%

BC By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
14.2
MAINE
Book Implied: 8.50
44.2
BOSTON COLLEGE
Book Implied: 46
Simulated Score
18
MAINE
Book Implied: 8.50
32
BOSTON COLLEGE
Book Implied: 46
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Boston College Win
95% Win Prob
A
Sim Boston College Win
92% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Maine (+37.5) Win
Proj Spread: +30.0
A
Sim Maine (+37.5) Win
Proj Spread: +14.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI o54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.4
B
Sim u54.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 ME @ BC 16 - 22
Sep 17, 2022 ME @ BC 17 - 38
Sep 5, 2015 ME @ BC 3 - 24
Sep 20, 2014 ME @ BC 10 - 40
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +46.7% more
Boston College: 405.5 vs Maine: 276.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +39.3% more
Boston College: 142.3 vs Maine: 102.1
First Downs (L5) +38.2% more
Boston College: 21.0 vs Maine: 15.2
Turnovers (L5) +10.4% more
Boston College: 2.0 vs Maine: 1.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ME Score 14.2 16
BC Score 44.2 22
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.0 / 15.2 18.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 142.3 / 102.1 186.0 / 69.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.33 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 405.5 / 276.4 359.0 / 270.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 1.8 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +38.5 / -38.5 → +37.5 / -37.5 ↓
63%TICKETS37%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53.5 → 54.5 ↑
78%TICKETS22%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ME
--
BC Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ME
--
BC Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -4.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ME
--
BC
0-5-0
O: 0.0% / U: 100.0% Total +/-: -9.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BC
ME
BC
ME
ML
80% 4-1
67% 2-1
80% 4-1
67% 2-1
ATS
60% 3-2
33% 1-2
80% 4-1
33% 1-2
TTL
20% 1-4
33% 1-2
20% 1-4
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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