Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Miami @ Wake Forest MIA @ WAKE

MIAMI

MIAMIMIA

3-0  |  Road

33
FINAL
Fri, Sep 18 • 7:30 PM ET
Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
View Odds Details →

WAKE FOREST

WAKE FORESTWAKE

2-1  |  Home

20
Key Game
Dylan Joyce
KEY GAME

Dylan Joyce

#94 | Punter
@
Ethan Hyams
KEY GAME

Ethan Hyams

#45 | Punter
Player
Dylan Joyce None-None
Ethan Hyams None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MIAMI
56%
📊
WAKE FOREST
44%
▲ Edge: +33.80% (WAKE)
MIAMI 94% Book Odds: -1587
WAKE FOREST 10% Book Odds: +900
Book Implied: 94.10% / 10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.5
Projected
Book Total
55.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +6.0 (Under)
Over 55.5 37%
Under 55.5 63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.5
WAKE FOREST
Book Spread
+20.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Wake Forest)
MiamiMIA (-20.5) 0 Wake ForestWAKE (+20.5)
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+20.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Miami Cover

42.9%

Wake Forest Cover

57.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around WAKE +2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WAKE)

MIA By 1-6 points

16.9%

MIA By 7-13 points

17.2%

WAKE By 1-6 points

15.5%

WAKE By 7-13 points

13.4%

AI Model Projected Score
26
MIAMI
Book Implied: 38
23.5
WAKE FOREST
Book Implied: 17.50
Simulated Score
33
MIAMI
Book Implied: 38
31
WAKE FOREST
Book Implied: 17.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Miami Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Miami Win
59% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Wake Forest (+20.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.5
A
Sim Wake Forest (+20.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI u55.5 Win
Proj Total: 49.5
B
Sim o55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 64.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 18, 2026 MIA @ WAKE 33 - 20
Nov 23, 2024 WAKE @ MIA 14 - 42
Oct 26, 2013 WAKE @ MIA 21 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +30.0% more
Miami: 1.2 vs Wake Forest: 0.8
First Downs (L5) +27.1% more
Miami: 30.4 vs Wake Forest: 22.1
Total Yards (L5) +24.5% more
Miami: 610.2 vs Wake Forest: 460.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +20.1% more
Miami: 231.5 vs Wake Forest: 184.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 26.0 33
WAKE Score 23.5 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.1 / 30.4 20.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 184.9 / 231.5 22.0 / 158.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.33 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 460.9 / 610.2 334.0 / 378.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.2 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -1786 / +1000 → -1587 / +900 ↑
95%TICKETS5%
97%MONEY3%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -22.5 / +22.5 → -20.5 / +20.5 ↑
48%TICKETS52%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: 54.5 → 55.5 ↑
77%TICKETS23%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 39.8 ATS +/-: +8.0
WAKE
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 15.3 ATS +/-: +12.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 39.8 ATS +/-: +8.0
WAKE
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 15.3 ATS +/-: +12.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.5
WAKE
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +4.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WAKE
MIA
WAKE
MIA
ML
67% 4-2
100% 5-0
67% 4-2
100% 5-0
ATS
67% 4-2
40% 2-3
67% 4-2
20% 1-4
TTL
67% 4-2
60% 3-2
33% 2-4
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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