Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / W Illinois @ Wisconsin WIU @ WIS

WESTERN ILLINOIS

W ILLINOISWIU

1-2  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 7:15 PM ET
Camp Randall Stadium
View Odds Details →

WISCONSIN

WISCONSINWIS

1-1  |  Home

36
Key Game
Luke Droegemueller
KEY GAME

Luke Droegemueller

#19 | Punter
@
Gavin Lahm
KEY GAME

Gavin Lahm

#97 | Place kicker
Player
Luke Droegemueller None-None
Gavin Lahm None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
W ILLINOIS
4%
📊
WISCONSIN
96%
W ILLINOIS --
WISCONSIN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
60.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 72%
Under 0 28%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+33.5
WESTERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
W IllinoisWIU (-3.5) 0 WisconsinWIS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

W Illinois Cover

99.2%

Wisconsin Cover

0.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WIU +33.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WIU)

WIU By 1-6 points

0.5%

WIU By 7-13 points

0.2%

WIS By 1-6 points

1.8%

WIS By 7-13 points

5.0%

AI Model Projected Score
13.5
WESTERN ILLINOIS
47
WISCONSIN
Simulated Score
14
WESTERN ILLINOIS
30
WISCONSIN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Wisconsin Win
96% Win Prob
A
Sim Wisconsin Win
94% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI W Illinois (+41.5) Win
Proj Spread: +33.5
B
Sim W Illinois (+41.5) Win
Proj Spread: +16.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o52.5 Loss
Proj Total: 60.5
B
Sim u52.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 WIU @ WIS 9 - 36
Sep 6, 2014 WIU @ WIS 3 - 37
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +95.9% more
Wisconsin: 103.3 vs Western Illinois: 52.8
Turnovers (L5) +47.4% more
Wisconsin: 1.7 vs Western Illinois: 1.2
Total Yards (L5) +27.0% more
Wisconsin: 256.9 vs Western Illinois: 202.2
First Downs (L5) +13.3% more
Wisconsin: 13.1 vs Western Illinois: 11.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WIU Score 13.5 9
WIS Score 47.0 36
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 13.1 / 11.5 16.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 103.3 / 52.8 233.0 / 154.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.42 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.42 / 0.58
Total Yards 256.9 / 202.2 406.0 / 302.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.2 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +2400 / -10000 → +2400 / -10000
14%TICKETS86%
0%MONEY100%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +37.5 / -37.5 → +37.5 / -37.5
95%TICKETS5%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: 55.5 → 55.5
38%TICKETS62%
98%MONEY2%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WIU
--
WIS Advantage
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 14.3 ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WIU
--
WIS Advantage
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 14.3 ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
WIU
--
WIS
2-1-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +6.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WIS
WIU
WIS
WIU
ML
100% 3-0
100% 1-0
67% 2-1
100% 1-0
ATS
67% 2-1
100% 1-0
67% 2-1
100% 1-0
TTL
67% 2-1
0% 0-1
100% 3-0
100% 1-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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