Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Tulsa @ Sam Houston TLSA @ SHSU

TULSA

TULSATLSA

2-0  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 7:00 PM ET
Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
View Odds Details →

SAM HOUSTON

SAM HOUSTONSHSU

0-2  |  Home

17
Key Game
Owen Carey
KEY GAME

Owen Carey

#10 | Place kicker
@
Cal Joseph
KEY GAME

Cal Joseph

#31 | Punter
Player
Owen Carey None-None
Cal Joseph None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TULSA
43%
📊
SAM HOUSTON
57%
▲ Edge: +37% (SHSU)
TULSA 84% Book Odds: -514
SAM HOUSTON 20% Book Odds: +398
Book Implied: 83.70% / 20.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.5 (Under)
Over 51.5 19%
Under 51.5 81%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
SAM HOUSTON
Book Spread
+12
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Sam Houston)
TulsaTLSA (-12) 0 Sam HoustonSHSU (+12)
Sam Houston Bearkats (+12) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tulsa Cover

41.5%

Sam Houston Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SHSU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SHSU)

TLSA By 1-6 points

15.3%

TLSA By 7-13 points

12.9%

SHSU By 1-6 points

17.0%

SHSU By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
23.5
TULSA
Book Implied: 31.80
26.5
SAM HOUSTON
Book Implied: 19.80
Simulated Score
25
TULSA
Book Implied: 31.80
24
SAM HOUSTON
Book Implied: 19.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Sam Houston Loss
57% Win Prob
D
Sim Tulsa Win
55% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Sam Houston (+12) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Sim Tulsa (-12) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u51.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
A
Sim u51.5 Win
Proj Total: 49.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 TLSA @ SHSU 23 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +8.2% more
Sam Houston: 1.6 vs Tulsa: 1.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +39.1% more
Tulsa: 181.1 vs Sam Houston: 110.2
Total Yards (L5) +11.1% more
Tulsa: 396.0 vs Sam Houston: 352.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TLSA Score 23.5 23
SHSU Score 26.5 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.4 / 19.9 19.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 110.2 / 181.1 55.0 / 241.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.38 / 0.24
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 352.1 / 396.0 371.0 / 367.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.5 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -639 / +436 → -514 / +398 ↑
98%TICKETS2%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -14 / +14 → -12 / +12 ↑
68%TICKETS32%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52 → 51.5 ↓
9%TICKETS91%
11%MONEY89%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TLSA Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -0.1
SHSU
1-5-0 (16.7%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: +4.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TLSA
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -0.1
SHSU
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: +4.0
⚖️ Over/Under
TLSA
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -2.7
SHSU
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -8.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SHSU
TLSA
SHSU
TLSA
ML
83% 5-1
67% 4-2
83% 5-1
100% 6-0
ATS
67% 4-2
67% 4-2
17% 1-5
33% 2-4
TTL
100% 6-0
50% 3-3
67% 4-2
83% 5-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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