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BOWLING GREEN

BOWLING GREENBGSU

0-2  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 7:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
View Odds Details →

NEBRASKA

NEBRASKANEB

2-0  |  Home

56
Key Game
Ryan Kingston
KEY GAME

Ryan Kingston

#30 | Punter
@
Kyle Cunanan
KEY GAME

Kyle Cunanan

#91 | Place kicker
Player
Ryan Kingston None-None
Kyle Cunanan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BOWLING GREEN
5%
📊
NEBRASKA
95%
BOWLING GREEN --
NEBRASKA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.4
Projected
Book Total
50.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +8.4 (Over)
Over 50.0 75%
Under 50.0 25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+30.0
BOWLING GREEN
Book Spread
+30
Book Line
Bowling GreenBGSU (+30) 0 NebraskaNEB (-30)
Line aligns with book spread (+30)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bowling Green Cover

98.4%

Nebraska Cover

1.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BGSU +30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BGSU)

BGSU By 1-6 points

1.0%

BGSU By 7-13 points

0.4%

NEB By 1-6 points

2.9%

NEB By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
14.2
BOWLING GREEN
Book Implied: 10
44.2
NEBRASKA
Book Implied: 40
Simulated Score
16
BOWLING GREEN
Book Implied: 10
31
NEBRASKA
Book Implied: 40
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Nebraska Win
95% Win Prob
B
Sim Nebraska Win
93% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bowling Green (-30) Win
Proj Spread: +30.0
A
Sim Nebraska (-30) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o50.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.4
A
Sim u50.0 Loss
Proj Total: 47.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 BGSU @ NEB 7 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +29.5% more
Nebraska: 204.3 vs Bowling Green: 157.8
Total Yards (L5) +20.8% more
Nebraska: 405.5 vs Bowling Green: 335.6
First Downs (L5) +20.3% more
Nebraska: 21.8 vs Bowling Green: 18.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Nebraska: 0.5 vs Bowling Green: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BGSU Score 14.2 7
NEB Score 44.2 56
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.8 / 18.1 28.0 / 9.0
Rushing Yards 204.3 / 157.8 264.0 / 85.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.62 / 0.17
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 405.5 / 335.6 546.0 / 169.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 1.4 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +2500 / -6667 → -- / --
1%TICKETS99%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +29 / -29 → +30 / -30 ↑
91%TICKETS9%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52 → 50 ↓
68%TICKETS32%
1%MONEY99%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BGSU
0-3-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -34.7 ATS +/-: -17.7
NEB Advantage
3-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 34.7 ATS +/-: +7.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BGSU
0-3-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -34.7 ATS +/-: -17.7
NEB Advantage
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 34.7 ATS +/-: +7.5
⚖️ Over/Under
BGSU
2-1-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +5.2
NEB
2-1-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +6.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEB
BGSU
NEB
BGSU
ML
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
ATS
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
TTL
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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