Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Wagner @ James Madison WAG @ JMU

WAGNER

WAGNERWAG

1-2  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 12:00 PM ET
Bridgeforth Stadium
View Odds Details →

JAMES MADISON

JAMES MADISONJMU

2-0  |  Home

87
Key Game
Johnny DiSalvatore
KEY GAME

Johnny DiSalvatore

#43 | Place kicker
@
Patrick Rea
KEY GAME

Patrick Rea

#11 | Punter
Player
Johnny DiSalvatore None-None
Patrick Rea None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WAGNER
3%
📊
JAMES MADISON
97%
WAGNER --
JAMES MADISON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
62.6
Projected
Book Total
56.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +6.1 (Over)
Over 56.5 64%
Under 56.5 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+35.0
WAGNER
Book Spread
+46.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.5 points (Wagner)
WagnerWAG (+46.5) 0 James MadisonJMU (-46.5)
Wagner Seahawks (+46.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wagner Cover

99.4%

James Madison Cover

0.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WAG +35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WAG)

WAG By 1-6 points

0.4%

WAG By 7-13 points

0.1%

JMU By 1-6 points

1.4%

JMU By 7-13 points

4.1%

AI Model Projected Score
13.8
WAGNER
Book Implied: 5
48.8
JAMES MADISON
Book Implied: 51.50
Simulated Score
11
WAGNER
Book Implied: 5
39
JAMES MADISON
Book Implied: 51.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI James Madison Win
97% Win Prob
A
Sim James Madison Win
100% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Wagner (+46.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +35.0
B
Sim Wagner (+46.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +28.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI o56.5 Win
Proj Total: 62.6
B
Sim u56.5 Loss
Proj Total: 50.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 WAG @ JMU 3 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +192.8% more
James Madison: 218.8 vs Wagner: 74.7
Total Yards (L5) +189.1% more
James Madison: 412.1 vs Wagner: 142.5
First Downs (L5) +144.8% more
James Madison: 19.6 vs Wagner: 8.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +16.0% more
James Madison: 0.4 vs Wagner: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WAG Score 13.8 3
JMU Score 48.8 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.6 / 8.0 27.0 / 10.0
Rushing Yards 218.8 / 74.7 290.0 / 86.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.2 0.62 / 0.32
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.38 / 0.62
Total Yards 412.1 / 142.5 588.0 / 204.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 1.0 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +45.5 / -45.5 → +46.5 / -46.5 ↑
90%TICKETS10%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: 54.5 → 56.5 ↑
44%TICKETS56%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WAG
--
JMU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 31.6 ATS +/-: +17.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WAG
--
JMU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 31.6 ATS +/-: +17.3
⚖️ Over/Under
WAG
--
JMU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JMU
WAG
JMU
WAG
ML
80% 4-1
67% 2-1
60% 3-2
67% 2-1
ATS
60% 3-2
33% 1-2
40% 2-3
33% 1-2
TTL
40% 2-3
67% 2-1
40% 2-3
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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