Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Duke @ Illinois DUKE @ ILL

DUKE

DUKEDUKE

2-0  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 3:30 PM ET
Gies Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

ILLINOIS

ILLINOISILL

1-1  |  Home

27
Key Game
Kade Reynoldson
KEY GAME

Kade Reynoldson

#41 | Punter
@
Ethan Moczulski
KEY GAME

Ethan Moczulski

#37 | Place kicker
Player
Kade Reynoldson None-None
Ethan Moczulski None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
DUKE
18%
📊
ILLINOIS
82%
▲ Edge: +13% (ILL)
DUKE 34% Book Odds: +195
ILLINOIS 69% Book Odds: -226
Book Implied: 33.90% / 69.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.4
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.9 (Over)
Over 51.5 61%
Under 51.5 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
ILLINOIS
Book Spread
-6
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Illinois)
DukeDUKE (+6) 0 IllinoisILL (-6)
Illinois Fighting Illini (-6) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Duke Cover

12.7%

Illinois Cover

87.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ILL -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILL)

DUKE By 1-6 points

6.5%

DUKE By 7-13 points

3.6%

ILL By 1-6 points

11.5%

ILL By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
20.2
DUKE
Book Implied: 22.80
36.2
ILLINOIS
Book Implied: 28.80
Simulated Score
26
DUKE
Book Implied: 22.80
28
ILLINOIS
Book Implied: 28.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Illinois Loss
82% Win Prob
C
Sim Illinois Loss
57% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Illinois (-6) Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
B
Sim Duke (+6) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o51.5 Win
Proj Total: 56.4
C
Sim o51.5 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 DUKE @ ILL 31 - 27
Sep 6, 2025 ILL @ DUKE 45 - 19
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +46.0% more
Duke: 0.9 vs Illinois: 0.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +23.6% more
Duke: 179.5 vs Illinois: 137.1
Time of Possession (L5) +14.0% more
Duke: 0.6 vs Illinois: 0.4
First Downs (L5) +10.5% more
Duke: 20.4 vs Illinois: 18.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DUKE Score 20.2 31
ILL Score 36.2 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.3 / 20.4 23.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 137.1 / 179.5 111.0 / 170.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.42 / 0.22
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.6 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 334.1 / 366.9 382.0 / 376.0
Turnovers 0.4 / 0.9 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +188 / -229 → +195 / -226
5%TICKETS95%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +6 / -6 → +6 / -6
38%TICKETS62%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53.5 → 51.5 ↓
38%TICKETS62%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DUKE Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +11.1
ILL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -5.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DUKE Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +11.1
ILL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -5.6
⚖️ Over/Under
DUKE
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -6.8
ILL
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILL
DUKE
ILL
DUKE
ML
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
ATS
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
TTL
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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