Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Stony Brook @ Ball State STBK @ BALL

STONY BROOK

STONY BROOKSTBK

1-2  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 2:00 PM ET
Scheumann Stadium
View Odds Details →

BALL STATE

BALL STATEBALL

1-1  |  Home

41
Key Game
Patrick Cleary
KEY GAME

Patrick Cleary

#34 | Punter
@
Cole Stumbaugh
KEY GAME

Cole Stumbaugh

#32 | Punter
Player
Patrick Cleary None-None
Cole Stumbaugh None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
STONY BROOK
9%
📊
BALL STATE
91%
▲ Edge: +6.10% (BALL)
STONY BROOK 19% Book Odds: +425
BALL STATE 85% Book Odds: -575
Book Implied: 19% / 85.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.0
Projected
Book Total
52.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 (Over)
Over 52.5 58%
Under 52.5 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.4
BALL STATE
Book Spread
-13.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.9 points (Ball State)
Stony BrookSTBK (+13.5) 0 Ball StateBALL (-13.5)
Ball State Cardinals (-13.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Stony Brook Cover

4.1%

Ball State Cover

95.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BALL -24.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BALL)

STBK By 1-6 points

2.4%

STBK By 7-13 points

1.0%

BALL By 1-6 points

5.7%

BALL By 7-13 points

11.8%

AI Model Projected Score
15.8
STONY BROOK
Book Implied: 19.50
40.2
BALL STATE
Book Implied: 33
Simulated Score
17
STONY BROOK
Book Implied: 19.50
28
BALL STATE
Book Implied: 33
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Ball State Win
91% Win Prob
B
Sim Ball State Win
86% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Ball State (-13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -24.4
B
Sim Stony Brook (+13.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o52.5 Win
Proj Total: 56.0
C
Sim u52.5 Loss
Proj Total: 45.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 STBK @ BALL 17 - 41
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +43.0% more
Ball State: 1.4 vs Stony Brook: 0.9
First Downs (L5) +25.0% more
Ball State: 14.5 vs Stony Brook: 11.6
Total Yards (L5) +13.0% more
Ball State: 242.7 vs Stony Brook: 214.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +11.2% more
Ball State: 93.0 vs Stony Brook: 83.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STBK Score 15.8 17
BALL Score 40.2 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 14.5 / 11.6 23.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 93.0 / 83.7 226.0 / 183.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.2 0.3 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 242.7 / 214.6 482.0 / 330.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 0.9 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +575 / -847 → +425 / -575 ↓
2%TICKETS98%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +14.5 / -14.5 → +13.5 / -13.5 ↓
74%TICKETS26%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: 57.5 → 52.5 ↓
29%TICKETS71%
24%MONEY76%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STBK
--
BALL Advantage
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -18.6 ATS +/-: -3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STBK
--
BALL Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -18.6 ATS +/-: -3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
STBK
--
BALL
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BALL
STBK
BALL
STBK
ML
100% 5-0
100% 2-0
100% 5-0
100% 2-0
ATS
60% 3-2
100% 2-0
40% 2-3
50% 1-1
TTL
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
60% 3-2
0% 0-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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