Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Holy Cross @ Miami OH HC @ M-OH

HOLY CROSS

HOLY CROSSHC

0-3  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 1:00 PM ET
Yager Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIAMI (OH)

MIAMI OHM-OH

1-1  |  Home

45
Key Game
Alessandro Garrett
KEY GAME

Alessandro Garrett

#48 | Place kicker
@
Kellan McLaughlin
KEY GAME

Kellan McLaughlin

#38 | Place kicker
Player
Alessandro Garrett None-None
Kellan McLaughlin None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
HOLY CROSS
5%
📊
MIAMI OH
95%
▲ Edge: +0.10% (HC)
HOLY CROSS 5% Book Odds: +2000
MIAMI OH 99% Book Odds: -6667
Book Implied: 4.80% / 98.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
59.0
Projected
Book Total
47.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +11.5 (Over)
Over 47.5 76%
Under 47.5 24%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
MIAMI (OH)
Book Spread
-30.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Miami (OH))
Holy CrossHC (+30.5) 0 Miami OHM-OH (-30.5)
Miami (OH) RedHawks (-30.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Holy Cross Cover

1.3%

Miami OH Cover

98.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around M-OH -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (M-OH)

HC By 1-6 points

0.9%

HC By 7-13 points

0.3%

M-OH By 1-6 points

2.5%

M-OH By 7-13 points

6.6%

AI Model Projected Score
14
HOLY CROSS
Book Implied: 8.50
45
MIAMI (OH)
Book Implied: 39
Simulated Score
20
HOLY CROSS
Book Implied: 8.50
28
MIAMI (OH)
Book Implied: 39
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Miami OH Win
95% Win Prob
B
Sim Miami OH Win
79% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Miami OH (-30.5) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Sim Holy Cross (+30.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +8.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o47.5 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
A
Sim o47.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 HC @ M-OH 7 - 45
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +14.3% more
Holy Cross: 114.2 vs Miami (OH): 98.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HC Score 14.0 7
M-OH Score 45.0 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.6 / 15.0 25.0 / 10.0
Rushing Yards 98.0 / 114.2 201.0 / 40.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.62 / 0.3
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.64 / 0.36
Total Yards 289.4 / 283.6 437.0 / 181.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.1 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +2200 / -7692 → +2000 / -6667
2%TICKETS98%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +30.5 / -30.5 → +30.5 / -30.5
65%TICKETS35%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5 → 47.5 ↓
29%TICKETS71%
18%MONEY82%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HC
--
M-OH Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HC
--
M-OH Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
HC
--
M-OH
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +8.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
M-OH
HC
M-OH
HC
ML
60% 3-2
100% 1-0
60% 3-2
100% 1-0
ATS
40% 2-3
100% 1-0
20% 1-4
0% 0-1
TTL
80% 4-1
100% 1-0
80% 4-1
100% 1-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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