Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / App State @ East Carolina APP @ ECU

APP STATE

APP STATEAPP

2-0  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 12:00 PM ET
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
View Odds Details →

EAST CAROLINA

EAST CAROLINAECU

0-2  |  Home

24
Key Game
Jaxson Dunn
KEY GAME

Jaxson Dunn

#40 | Punter
@
Tomas O'Halloran
KEY GAME

Tomas O'Halloran

#48 | Punter
Player
Jaxson Dunn None-None
Tomas O'Halloran None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
APP STATE
17%
📊
EAST CAROLINA
83%
▲ Edge: +11.70% (ECU)
APP STATE 32% Book Odds: +212
EAST CAROLINA 72% Book Odds: -255
Book Implied: 32.10% / 71.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.4
Projected
Book Total
56.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +3.1 (Under)
Over 56.5 47%
Under 56.5 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
EAST CAROLINA
Book Spread
-6.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.5 points (East Carolina)
App StateAPP (+6.5) 0 East CarolinaECU (-6.5)
East Carolina Pirates (-6.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

App State Cover

11.2%

East Carolina Cover

88.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ECU -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ECU)

APP By 1-6 points

5.9%

APP By 7-13 points

3.2%

ECU By 1-6 points

10.7%

ECU By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
18.2
APP STATE
Book Implied: 25
35.2
EAST CAROLINA
Book Implied: 31.50
Simulated Score
18
APP STATE
Book Implied: 25
35
EAST CAROLINA
Book Implied: 31.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI East Carolina Loss
83% Win Prob
C
Sim East Carolina Loss
95% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI East Carolina (-6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
B
Sim East Carolina (-6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u56.5 Win
Proj Total: 53.4
D
Sim u56.5 Win
Proj Total: 53.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 APP @ ECU 27 - 24
Sep 14, 2024 APP @ ECU 21 - 19
Sep 16, 2023 ECU @ APP 28 - 43
Sep 2, 2021 ECU @ APP 19 - 33
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +45.4% more
App State: 198.1 vs East Carolina: 108.1
First Downs (L5) +43.0% more
App State: 26.0 vs East Carolina: 14.8
Total Yards (L5) +33.7% more
App State: 479.0 vs East Carolina: 317.7
Turnovers (L5) +24.8% more
App State: 1.6 vs East Carolina: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
APP Score 18.2 27
ECU Score 35.2 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 14.8 / 26.0 22.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 108.1 / 198.1 187.0 / 129.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.2 / 0.3 0.15 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.4 / 0.6
Total Yards 317.7 / 479.0 417.0 / 396.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.6 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +284 / -370 → +212 / -255 ↓
6%TICKETS94%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +9.5 / -9.5 → +6.5 / -6.5 ↓
51%TICKETS49%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: 56.5 → 56.5
18%TICKETS82%
20%MONEY80%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
APP Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.5 ATS +/-: +8.0
ECU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -4.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
APP Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.5 ATS +/-: +8.0
ECU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -4.8
⚖️ Over/Under
APP
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.5
ECU
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ECU
APP
ECU
APP
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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