Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Lamar @ Louisiana LAM @ UL

LAMAR

LAMARLAM

1-1  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 8:00 PM ET
Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOUISIANA

LOUISIANAUL

1-0  |  Home

38
Key Game
Mason Stallons
KEY GAME

Mason Stallons

#33 | Place kicker
@
Mason Golding
KEY GAME

Mason Golding

#49 | Punter
Player
Mason Stallons None-None
Mason Golding None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LAMAR
9%
📊
LOUISIANA
91%
LAMAR --
LOUISIANA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 57%
Under 0 43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.6
LOUISIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.6 points (Louisiana)
LamarLAM (-3.5) 0 LouisianaUL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lamar Cover

4.6%

Louisiana Cover

95.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UL -23.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UL)

LAM By 1-6 points

2.7%

LAM By 7-13 points

1.2%

UL By 1-6 points

6.1%

UL By 7-13 points

12.4%

AI Model Projected Score
13.5
LAMAR
37.1
LOUISIANA
Simulated Score
13
LAMAR
42
LOUISIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Louisiana Win
91% Win Prob
B
Sim Louisiana Win
100% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Louisiana (-20.5) Win
Proj Spread: -23.6
C
Sim Lamar (+20.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +29.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 50.6
C
Sim o48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 LAM @ UL 7 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +130.3% more
Louisiana: 164.9 vs Lamar: 71.6
Total Yards (L5) +62.4% more
Louisiana: 349.0 vs Lamar: 214.9
First Downs (L5) +47.1% more
Louisiana: 19.3 vs Lamar: 13.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +15.0% more
Louisiana: 0.4 vs Lamar: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAM Score 13.5 7
UL Score 37.1 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.3 / 13.1 25.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 164.9 / 71.6 243.0 / 56.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.38 / 0.54
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 349.0 / 214.9 474.0 / 205.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.7 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -3000 / +1200 → -3000 / +1200
1%TICKETS99%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -21.5 / +21.5 → -21.5 / +21.5
42%TICKETS58%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: 48.5 → 48.5
40%TICKETS60%
29%MONEY71%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAM
--
UL Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +7.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAM
--
UL Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +7.6
⚖️ Over/Under
LAM
--
UL
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UL
LAM
UL
LAM
ML
100% 5-0
100% 2-0
100% 5-0
100% 2-0
ATS
75% 3-1-1
100% 2-0
50% 2-2-1
50% 1-1
TTL
20% 1-4
50% 1-1
40% 2-3
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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