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TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

72-76  |  Road

1
FINAL
Fri, Sep 11 • 9:40 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

79-69  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
MacKenzie Gore
STARTING PITCHER

MacKenzie Gore

#1 | Starting Pitcher
@
Merrill Kelly
STARTING PITCHER

Merrill Kelly

#29 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
MacKenzie Gore 8-10 4.51 1.33 157.2 170
Merrill Kelly 9-13 5.06 1.47 147.2 99
8-10 W-L 9-13
4.51 Ldr ERA 5.06
1.33 Ldr WHIP 1.47
157.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 147.2
170 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 99
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
46%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
54%
RANGERS 51% Book Odds: -102
DIAMONDBACKS 54% Book Odds: -118
Book Implied: 50.50% / 54.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
Over 8.5 49%
Under 8.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
ARIZONA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Arizona)
RangersTEX (-1.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (+1.5)
Arizona Diamondbacks (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rangers Cover

35.4%

Diamondbacks Cover

64.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

TEX By 1-2 runs

15.0%

TEX By 3-4 runs

9.2%

ARI By 1-2 runs

19.7%

ARI By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
TEXAS
Book Implied: 5
5
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
5
TEXAS
Book Implied: 5
4
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Diamondbacks Win
54% Win Prob
C
Sim Rangers Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
A
Sim Diamondbacks (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 TEX @ ARI 7 - 6
Sep 12, 2026 TEX @ ARI 6 - 2
Sep 11, 2026 TEX @ ARI 1 - 9
May 13, 2026 ARI @ TEX 5 - 6
May 12, 2026 ARI @ TEX 4 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas TEX
vs
Arizona ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.15
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.242
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .318
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.713
OPS
▲ .720
183 ▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +54.1% more
Arizona: 4.0 vs Texas: 2.6
Hits (L5) +19.0% more
Arizona: 8.6 vs Texas: 7.2
Errors (L5) +16.0% more
Arizona: 0.7 vs Texas: 0.6
Runs per Game (Season) +9.9% more
Arizona: 4.6 vs Texas: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEX Score 3.5 1
ARI Score 5.0 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.6 / 7.2 11.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.8 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.5 / 10.4 8.0 / 3.0
Total Bases 12.4 / 13.2 22.0 / 6.0
Walks 4.0 / 2.6 4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -112 / -108 → -102 / -118 ↑
33%TICKETS67%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
49%TICKETS51%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8.5 ↑
95%TICKETS5%
95%MONEY5%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
TEX
ARI
TEX
ML
54% 87-74
53% 86-76
54% 86-74
57% 91-70
ATS
57% 91-70
57% 92-70
56% 89-71
61% 98-63
TTL
52% 80-73-8
53% 78-70-14
49% 73-77-9
55% 81-66-14
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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